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www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/1/367/1997/
doi:10.5194/hess-1-367-1997
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A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling
1Department of Earth and Geo-Environmental Sciences, University of Bologna - Bologna - Italy
2Department of Statistics, University of Bologna - Bologna - Italy
Abstract. A new probabilistic interpretation of at site rainfall sequences is introduced for the development of a stochastic model of rain.
The model, is divided into two sub models; the first one describing the total number of rainfall spells within a window of time is described by a Pòlya process in order to reproduce better the variable probability of occurrence of rainfall during storm events (due to the presence of different numbers of rainfall cells); the second sub model, conditional on the first one, describes the total quantity of rainfall in the time window, given a number of rainfall spells.
The probabilistic rainfall model, which has shown interesting properties in reproducing the probability distribution of observed data at time scales ranging from one hour to twenty-four hours, may be the basis for a number of applications which include the development of a conditional stochastic generator of rain, within the frame of real-time flood forecasting, and the derivation of a probabilistic distribution of rainfall extremes at the various time scales.
Final Revised Paper (PDF, 1212 KB)
Citation: Todini, E. and di Bacco, M.: A combined Pòlya process and mixture distribution approach to rainfall modelling, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 1, 367-378, doi:10.5194/hess-1-367-1997, 1997. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
