Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 10 4 2006 10.5194/hess-10-589-2006 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/589/2006/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/589/2006/hess-10-589-2006.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/589/2006/hess-10-589-2006.pdf 589 601 2006-08-21 Relationships between statistics of rainfall extremes and mean annual precipitation: an application for design-storm estimation in northern central Italy G. Di Baldassarre giuliano.dibaldassarre@mail.ing.unibo.it A. Castellarin A. Brath DISTART, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy Several hydrological analyses need to be founded on a reliable estimate of the design storm, which is the expected rainfall depth corresponding to a given duration and probability of occurrence, usually expressed in terms of return period. The annual series of precipitation maxima for storm duration ranging from 15 min to 1 day, observed at a dense network of raingauges sited in northern central Italy, are analyzed using an approach based on L-moments. The analysis investigates the statistical properties of rainfall extremes and detects significant relationships between these properties and the mean annual precipitation (MAP). On the basis of these relationships, we developed a regional model for estimating the rainfall depth for a given storm duration and recurrence interval in any location of the study region. The applicability of the regional model was assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainty of the model for ungauged sites was quantified through an extensive cross-validation. Alila, Y.: A hierarchical approach for the regionalization of precipitation annual maxima in Canada, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 31 645–31 655, 1999. Brath, A. and Franchini, M.: La valutazione delle Pioggie intense su base regionale (in Italian), in: L'ingegneria naturalistica nella sistemazione dei corsi d'acqua, edited by: Maione, U. and Brath, A., BIOS (Cosenza), 65–91, 1999. Brath, A. and Franchini, M.: la valutazione delle pioggie intense su base regionale (in Italian),Proceedings of the scientific seminar L'ingegneria naturalistica nella sistemazione dei corsi d'acqua, edited by: Maione, U. and Brath, A., BIOS (Cosenza), 65–91, 1999. Brath, A. and Castellarin, A.: Tecniche di affinamento delle previsioni regionali del rischio pluviometrico (in Italian), Proceedings of the scientific seminar La progettazione della difesa idraulica – Interventi di laminazione controllata delle piene fluviali, edited by: Maione, U., Brath, A., and Mignosa, P., BIOS (Cosenza), 93–121, 2001. Brath, A., Castellarin, A., and Montanari, A.: Assessing the reliability of regional depth-duration-frequency equations for gaged and ungaged sites, Water Resour. Res., 39(12), 1367–1379, 2003. Burlando, P. and Rosso, R.: Scaling and multiscaling Depth-Duration-Frequency curves of storm precipitation, J. Hydrol., 187, 45–64, 1996. Burn, D. H.: Evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis with a region of influence approach, Water Resour. Res., 26(10), 2257–2265, 1990. Castellarin, A., Burn, D. H., and Brath, A.: Assessing the effectiveness of hydrological similarity measures for flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 241(3–4), 270–285, 2001. Castellarin, A. and Brath, A.: Tecniche di perfezionamento delle stime regionali del rischio pluviometrico (in Italian), Proceedings of the XXVIII Italian Conference on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Works, Potenza 16–19 settembre 2002, 1, 225–236, Ed. BIOS, Cosenza, 2002. Castellarin, A. and Brath, A.: Descriptive capability of seasonality indicators for regional frequency analyses of flood and rainfall, Proceedings of the International Conference on Flood Estimation, CHR Rep. II-17, 429–440, Lelystad, Netherlands, 2002. Dalrymple, T.: Flood frequency analysis, U.S Geol. Surv. Water Supply Pap., 1543-A, 11–51, 1960. Faulkner, D.: Rainfall frequency estimation, Flood estimation Handbook, 2, Wallingford, 1999. Franchini, M. and Galeati, G.: La regionalizzazione delle pioggie intense mediante il modello TCEV. Una applicazione alla regione Romagna-Marche (in Italian), Idrotecnica, 5, 1994. Gabriele, S. and Arnell, N.: A hierarchical approach to regional flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 27(6), 1281–1289, 1991. Horton, R. E.: Analysis of runoff-plat experiments with varying infiltration capacity. Transactions, Am. Geophys. Union, 20, 693–711, 1939. Hosking, J. R. M.: L-moments: analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combination of order statistics, J. Royal Statistical Soc., Series B., 52(1), 105–124, 1990. Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: The Effect of Inter-Site Dependence on Regional Flood Frequency Analysis, Water Resour. Res., 24, 588–600, 1988. Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Some statistics useful in regional frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 29(2), 271–281, 1993. Hosking, J. R. M. and Wallis, J. R.: Regional frequency Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1997. Jenkinson, A. F.: The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) of meteorological elements, Q. J. Royal Meteorol. Soc., 81, 1955. Kitanidis, P. K.: Geostatistics, Handbook of Hydrology, edited by: Maidment, D. R., McGraw-Hill, New York, 20.1–20.39, 1993. Klemes V.: Tall tales about tails of hydrological distributions: I and II, J. Hydrol. Eng., American Society of Civil Engineers 5(3), 227–239, 2000. Marani, M.: On the correlation structure of continuous and discrete point rainfall, Water Resour. Res., 39(5), 1128, doi:10.1029/2002WR001456, 2003. Olsson, J. and Burlando, P.: Reproduction of temporal scaling by a rectangular pulses rainfall model, Hydrol. Processes, 16, 611–630, 2002. Schaefer, M. G.: Regional analyses of precipitation annual maxima in Washington State, Water Resour. Res., 26(1), 119–131, 1990. Schaefer, M. G.: Regional analyses of precipitation annual maxima in Washington State, Water Resour. Res., 26(1), 119–131, 1990.