Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net
1027-5606
1607-7938
10
5
2006
10.5194/hess-10-691-2006
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/691/2006/
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/691/2006/hess-10-691-2006.html
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/691/2006/hess-10-691-2006.pdf
691
701
2006-10-04
Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin – the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation?
A. G. Ashagrie
P. J. de Laat
M. J. de Wit
M. Tu
S. Uhlenbrook
s.uhlenbrook@unesco-ihe.org
UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, P.O. Box 3015, 2601 DA Delft, The Netherlands
Rijkswaterstaat RIZA Institute for Inland Water Management and Waste Water Treatment, P.O. Box 9072, 6800 ED Arnhem, The Netherlands
Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the
river basin scale is a current challenge in hydrological science. A daily
discharge record (1911–2000) of the river Meuse (21 000 km<sup>2</sup>; Western
Europe) has been simulated with a semi-distributed conceptual model (HBV).
The model has been calibrated and validated with a data set for the period
1968–1998. In this study the performance of the model for the period prior
to 1968 has been analysed. The observed and simulated discharge records are
compared in terms of annual average discharge, summer and winter average
discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual maximum 10-day average
discharge. The results are discussed with reference to land use change (i.e. forest
type change) and shortcomings of the available precipitation and
discharge records.
<P>
The general agreement between the observed and simulated discharge records
is good (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: 0.89–0.93), in particular flood volumes
and the highest flood peaks are simulated well but the model has problems
with the medium floods (shape and peak value). However, there are some
systematic deviations between the observed and simulated discharges during
specific periods. The simulation result could somewhat be improved by taking
the historical land use into consideration. But the systematic
overestimation of the discharge for the period 1933–1968 could not be
attributed to observed changes in land use. It is concluded that the overall
impact of land use changes in the Meuse basin is too small to be detected
given the uncertainties in the available records.
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