Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 10 6 2006 10.5194/hess-10-807-2006 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/807/2006/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/807/2006/hess-10-807-2006.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/10/807/2006/hess-10-807-2006.pdf 807 815 2006-10-30 Modelling of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale catchment in North-West India II: stochastic rainfall simulations E. Zehe ezehe@rz.uni-potsdam.de A. K. Singh A. Bárdossy Institute of Geoecology, University of Potsdam, Germany Civil Engineering Department, Nirma University of Science {&} Technology (NU) Ahmedabad – 382 481, India Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, Germany Within this study we present a robust method for generating precipitation time series for the Anas catchment in North Western India. The method employs a multivariate stochastic simulation model that is driven by a time series of objectively classified circulation patterns (CPs). In a companion study (Zehe et al., 2006) it was already shown that CPs classified from the 500 or 700 Hpa levels are suitable to explain space-time variability of precipitation in that area. The model is calibrated using observed rainfall time series for the period 1985–1992 for two different CP time series, one from the 500 Hpa level and the over from the 700 Hpa level, and 200 realizations of daily rainfall are simulated for the period 85–94. Simulations using the CPs from the 500 Hpa level as input yield a good match of the observed averages and standard deviations of daily rainfall. They show furthermore good performance at the monthly scale. When used with the 700 Hpa level CPs as inputs the model clearly underestimates the standard deviation and performs much worse at the monthly scale, especially in the validation period 93–94. The presented results give evidence that CPs from the 500 Hpa, level in combination with a multivariate stochastic model, make up a suitable tool for reducing the sparsity of precipitation data in developing regions with sparse hydro-meteorological data sets. Bárdossy, A., Stehlik, J., and Caspary, H.-J.: Generating of areal precipitation series in the upper Neckar catchment, Phys. Chem. Earth (B), 26, 9, 683–687, 2001. Bürger, G.: Selected precipitation scenarios across Europe. J. Hydrol., 262, 99–110, 2002. Clark, C. O, Cole, J. E., and Webster, P. J.: Indian ocean SST and Indian summer rainfall: Predictive relationships and their decadal variability, J. Clim., 13, 2503–2519, 1999. Foufoula-Georgiou, E. and Lettenmaier, D.: A markov renewal model for rainfall occurrences, Water Resour. Res., 23, 875–884, 1987. Harzallah, A. and Sadourny, R.: Observed lead lag relationships between Indian summer monsoon and some meteorological variables, Clim. Dyn., 13, 635–648, 1999. Hulme, M.: An intercomparision of model and observed global precipitation climatologies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 18, 1715–1718, 1991. Huth, R.: Potential of continental scale circulation for the determination of local scale surface variables, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 56, 165–186, 1997. Huth, R. and Kysel\'y, J.: Constructing site specific climate change scenarios on a monthly scale using statistical downscaling, Theor. Appl. Climatology, 66, 13–27, 2000. Katz, R. W. and Parlange, M. B.: Effects of an index of atmospheric circulation on stochastic properties of precipitation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2335–2344, 1993. Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., Karambiri, H., Lakshmi, V., Liang, X., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O'Connel, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S., and Zehe, E.: IAHS decade on Predictions of Ungaged Basins (PUB): Shaping an exciting future for the hydrological sciences, Hydrol. Sci. J., 48(6), 857–879, 2003. Stehlik, J. and Bárdossy, A.: Multivariate stochastic downscaling model for generating daily Rainfall series based on atmospheric circulation, J. Hydrol., 256, 120–141, 2002. Webster, P. J. and Hoyos, C.: Prediction of monsoon rainfall and river discharge on 15–30 day time scales, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 1745–1767, 2004. Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Precipitation predictors for downscaling – observed and general circulation model relationships, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 641–661, 2000. Wilby, R. L. and Wigley, T. M. L.: Downscaling general circulation model output: a review of methods and limitations, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 21, 530–548, 1997. Wilson, L. L., Lettenmaier, D. P., and Skyllingstaed, E.: A multiple stochastic daily precipitation model conditional on large scale circulation patterns, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 2791–2801, 1992. Zehe, E., Singh A. K., and Bárdossy, A.: Modelling of monsoon rainfall for a mesoscale catchment in North-West India I: assessment of objective circulation patterns, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 797–806, 2006.