Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net
1027-5606
1607-7938
11
4
2007
10.5194/hess-11-1341-2007
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1341/2007/
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1341/2007/hess-11-1341-2007.html
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1341/2007/hess-11-1341-2007.pdf
1341
1351
2007-05-15
Rainfall nowcasting by at site stochastic model P.R.A.I.S.E.
B. Sirangelo
P. Versace
D. L. De Luca
davideluca@dds.unical.it
Dipartimento di Difesa del Suolo, Università della Calabria – Rende, Italy
The paper introduces a stochastic model to forecast rainfall heights at
site: the P.R.A.I.S.E. model (Prediction of Rainfall Amount Inside Storm
Events). PRAISE is based on the assumption that the rainfall height <I>H<sub>i</I>+1</sub>
accumulated on an interval Δ<I>t</I> between the instants <I>iΔt</I> and
<I>(i+1Δt</I> is correlated with a variable <I>Z<sub>i<sup>(ν)</sup></sub></I>,
representing antecedent precipitation. The mathematical
background is given by a joined probability density <I>f<sub>H<sub>i+1</sub></sub>, Z<sub>i</sub><sup>(ν)</sup>(h<sub>i+1</sub> ,z<sub>i</sub><sup>(ν)</sup></I>) in which
the variables have a mixed nature, that is a finite probability in
correspondence to the null value and infinitesimal probabilities in
correspondence to the positive values. As study area, the Calabria region,
in Southern Italy, was selected, to test performances of the PRAISE model.
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