Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 11 5 2007 10.5194/hess-11-1673-2007 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1673/2007/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1673/2007/hess-11-1673-2007.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/1673/2007/hess-11-1673-2007.pdf 1673 1682 2007-10-17 Assessing winter storm flow generation by means of permeability of the lithology and dominating runoff production processes H. Hellebrand hellebra@lippmann.lu L. Hoffmann J. Juilleret L. Pfister Public Research Center-Gabriel Lippmann, Belvaux, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg In this study two approaches are used to predict winter storm flow coefficients in meso-scale basins (10 km² to 1000 km²) with a view to regionalization. The winter storm flow coefficient corresponds to the ratio between direct discharge and rainfall. It is basin specific and supposed to give an integrated response to rainfall. The two approaches, which used the permeability of the substratum and dominating runoff generation processes as basin attributes are compared. The study area is the Rhineland Palatinate and the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and the study focuses on the Nahe basin and its 16 sub-basins (Rhineland Palatinate). For the comparison, three statistical models were derived by means of regression analysis. The models used the winter storm flow coefficient as the dependent variable; the independent variables were the permeability of the substratum, preliminary derived dominating runoff generation processes and a combination of both. It is demonstrated that the permeability and the preliminary derived processes carry different layers of information. Cross-validation and statistical tests were used to determine and evaluate model differences. The cross-validation resulted in a best model performance for the model that used both parameters, followed by the model that used the dominant runoff generation processes. From the statistical tests it was concluded that the models come from different populations, carrying different information layers. Analysis of the residuals of the models indicated that the permeability and runoff generation processes did provide complementary information. Simple linear models appeared to perform well in describing the winter storm flow coefficient at the meso-scale when a combination of the permeability of the substratum and dominating runoff generation processes served as independent parameters. Blöschl, G.: Scale and scaling in hydrology. Wiener Mitteilungen, Wasser – Abwasser – Gewässer, Wien, Österreich, p 162, 1996. Blöschl, G. and Sivapalan, M.: Scale issues in hydrological modelling – a review, Hydrol. Process., 9, 251–290, 1995. Burn, D. H.: Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures, J. Hydrol., 202, 212–230, 1997. Chatfield, C. and Collins, A. J.: Introduction to multivariate analysis, Chapman & Hall, London, 1980. Croke, B. and Norton, J.: Regionalisation of rainfall-runoff models, Transactions of the 2nd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, iEMSs, 3, 1201–1207, 2004. Dobos, E., Micheli, E., Baumgardner, M. F., Biehl, L., and Helt, T.: Use of combined digital elevation model and satellite radiometric data for regional soil mapping, Geoderma, 97, 367–391, 2000. Faeh, A. O.: Understanding the processes of discharge formation under extreme precipitation; A study based on the numerical simulation of hillslope experiments, Mitteilung der Versuchsanstalt für Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie, ETH Zürich, 150 pp., 1997. Gaddas, F.: Proposition d'une méthode de cartographie des pédopaysages. Application à la Moyenne Vallée du Rhône, Ph.D. thesis, Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grinon, France, 195~pp., 2001. James, F. C. and McCulloch, C. E.: Multivariate analysis in ecology and systematics: panacea or Pandora's box?, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 21, 129–166, 1990. Kokkonen, T. S., Jakeman, J., Young, P. C., and Koivusalo, H. J.: Predicting daily flows in ungauged catchments: model regionalization from catchment descriptors at the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, Hydrol. Process., 17, 2219–2238, 2003. Kruskal, W. and Wallis, A.: Use of ranks in one-criterion variance analysis, J. Am. Statist. Assoc., 47, 583–621, 1952. Mazvimavi, D.: Estimation of Flow Characteristics of Ungauged Catchments: a case study in Zimbabwe, Ph.D. thesis, Wageningen University, The Netherlands, 176 pp., 2003. Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Regionalisation of catchment model parameters, J. Hydrol., 287, 95–123, 2004. Merz, R., Blöschl, G., and Parajka, J.: Spatio-temporal variability of event runoff coefficients, J. Hydrol., 331, 591–604, 2006. Parajka, J., Merz, R., and Blöschl, G.: A comparison of regionalization methods for catchment model parameters, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 353–368, 2006. Pfister, L., Iffly, J.-F., Hoffmann, L., and Humbert, J.: Use of regionalized stormflow coefficients with a view to hydroclimatological hazard mapping, Hydrol. Sci. J., 47, 479–491, 2002. Post, D. A. and Jakeman, A. J.: Predicting the daily streamflow of ungauged catchments in S.E. Australia by regionalising the parameters of a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, Ecol. Model., 123, 91–104, 1999. Sauer, D., Scholten, T., Spies, E.-D., and Felix-Henningsen, P.: Pleistocene periglacial slope deposits influenced by geology and relief in the Rhenish Massif, Paper presented at the 17th World Congress of Soil Science, Thailand, 14–21, 2002. Scherrer, S.: Abflussbildung bei Starkniederschlägen, Identifikation von abflussprozessen mittels künstlicher Niederschläge, VAW – Versuchsanstalt für Wasserbau, Hydrologie und Glaziologie der ETH Zürich, Zürich, 147 pp., 1997. Scherrer, S. and Naef, F.: A decision scheme to identify dominant flow processes at the plot-scale for the evaluation of contributing areas at the catchments-scale, Hydrol. Process., 17(2), 391–401, 2003. Schmocker-Fackel, P., Naef, F., and Scherrer, S.: Identifying runoff processes on the plot and catchment scale, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 891–906, 2007. Steinrücken, U., Behrens, T., and Scholten, T.: Nutzungsbezogene bodenhydrologische Karte: das Einzugsgebiet der Nahe und südlich angrenzende Bereiche (Soilution GbR.), 2006. Uhlenbrook, S., Roser, S., and Tilch, N.: Hydrological process representation at the meso-scale: the potential of a distributed, conceptual catchment model, J. Hydrol., 291, 278–296, 2004. Zumstein, J. F., Gille, E., Decloux, J. P., and Paris, P.: Atlas de la lithologie et de la perméabilité du bassin Rhin-Meuse, Agence de l'Eau Rhin-Meuse, Moulin-lès-Metz, France, 1989.