Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 11 2 2007 10.5194/hess-11-739-2007 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/739/2007/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/739/2007/hess-11-739-2007.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/11/739/2007/hess-11-739-2007.pdf 739 752 2007-01-17 Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations F. Pappenberger florian.pappenberger@ecmwf.int K. Frodsham K. Beven R. Romanowicz P. Matgen Hydrology and Fluid Dynamics Group, Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK JBA Consulting, The Brew House Wilderspool Park, Greenall's Avenue Warrington WA4 6HL UK Département en Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies, Centre de Recherche Public Gabriel Lippmann, Luxembourg now at: the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK currently at: Geocentrum, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation. Aronica, G., Bates, P. D., and Horritt, M. S.: Assessing the uncertainty in distributed model predictions using observed binary pattern information within GLUE, Hydrolog. Processes, 16(10), 2001–2016, 2002. Aronica, G., Hankin, B., and Beven, K. J.: Uncertainty and equifinality in calibrating distributed roughness coefficients in a flood propagation model with limited data, Adv. Water Resour., 22(4), 349–365, 1998. Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A. P. J.: A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation, J. Hydrol., 236(1–2), 54–77, 2000. Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. 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