<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="no"?>
<!DOCTYPE article SYSTEM "http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/inc/hess/copernicus.dtd">
<article language="en">
	<journal>
		<journal_title>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences</journal_title>
		<journal_url>www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net</journal_url>
		<issn>1027-5606</issn>
		<eissn>1607-7938</eissn>
		<volume_number>12</volume_number>
		<issue_number>4</issue_number>
		<publication_year>2008</publication_year>
	</journal>
	<doi>10.5194/hess-12-1007-2008</doi>
	<article_url>http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1007/2008/</article_url>
	<abstract_html>http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1007/2008/hess-12-1007-2008.html</abstract_html>
	<fulltext_pdf>http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1007/2008/hess-12-1007-2008.pdf</fulltext_pdf>
	<start_page>1007</start_page>
	<end_page>1025</end_page>
	<publication_date>2008-07-29</publication_date>
	<article_title content_type="html">An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part 1: Model description and input meteorological forcing</article_title>
	<authors>
		<author numeration="1" affiliations="1">
			<name>N. Hanasaki</name>
			<email>hanasaki@nies.go.jp</email>
		</author>
		<author numeration="2" affiliations="2">
			<name>S. Kanae</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="3" affiliations="2">
			<name>T. Oki</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="4" affiliations="3">
			<name>K. Masuda</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="5" affiliations="4">
			<name>K. Motoya</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="6" affiliations="5">
			<name>N. Shirakawa</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="7" affiliations="6">
			<name>Y. Shen</name>
		</author>
		<author numeration="8" affiliations="7">
			<name>K. Tanaka</name>
		</author>
	</authors>
	<affiliations>
		<affiliation numeration="1" content_type="html">National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="2" content_type="html">Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, Japan</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="3" content_type="html">Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="4" content_type="html">Faculty of Education and Human Studies, Akita University, Japan</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="5" content_type="html">Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, Japan</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="6" content_type="html">Center for Agricultural Resources Research, The Chinese Academy of Sciences, China</affiliation>
		<affiliation numeration="7" content_type="html">Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Japan</affiliation>
	</affiliations>
	<abstract content_type="html">To assess global water availability and use at a subannual timescale, an
integrated global water resources model was developed consisting of six
modules: land surface hydrology, river routing, crop growth, reservoir
operation, environmental flow requirement estimation, and anthropogenic
water withdrawal. The model simulates both natural and anthropogenic water
flow globally (excluding Antarctica) on a daily basis at a spatial
resolution of 1&amp;deg;&amp;times;1&amp;deg; (longitude and latitude). This first
part of the two-feature report describes the six modules and the input
meteorological forcing. The input meteorological forcing was provided by the
second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2), an international land surface
modeling project. Several reported shortcomings of the forcing component
were improved. The land surface hydrology module was developed based on a
bucket type model that simulates energy and water balance on land surfaces.
The crop growth module is a relatively simple model based on concepts of
heat unit theory, potential biomass, and a harvest index. In the reservoir
operation module, 452 major reservoirs with &amp;gt;1 km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; each of storage
capacity store and release water according to their own rules of operation.
Operating rules were determined for each reservoir by an algorithm that used
currently available global data such as reservoir storage capacity, intended
purposes, simulated inflow, and water demand in the lower reaches. The
environmental flow requirement module was newly developed based on case
studies from around the world. Simulated runoff was compared and validated
with observation-based global runoff data sets and observed streamflow
records at 32 major river gauging stations around the world. Mean annual
runoff agreed well with earlier studies at global and continental scales,
and in individual basins, the mean bias was less than &amp;plusmn;20% in 14 of
the 32 river basins and less than &amp;plusmn;50% in 24 basins. The error in
the peak was less than &amp;plusmn;1 mo in 19 of the 27 basins and less than &amp;plusmn;2 mo
in 25 basins. The performance was similar to the best available
precedent studies with closure of energy and water. The input meteorological
forcing component and the integrated model provide a framework with which to
assess global water resources, with the potential application to investigate
the subannual variability in water resources.</abstract>
	<references>
		<reference numeration="1" content_type="text"> Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rosch, T., and Siebert, S.: Development and testing of the WaterGAP 2 global model of water use and availability, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 317–337, 2003a. </reference>
		<reference numeration="2" content_type="text"> Alcamo, J., Döll, P., Henrichs, T., Kaspar, F., Lehner, B., Rosch, T., and Siebert, S.: Global estimates of water withdrawals and availability under current and future &quot;business-as-usual&quot; conditions, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 48, 339–348, 2003b. </reference>
		<reference numeration="3" content_type="text"> Alcamo, J., Florke, M., and Marker, M.: Future long-term changes in global water resources driven by socio-economic and climatic changes, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 52, 247–275, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="4" content_type="text"> Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources, Global. Environ. Chang., 9, S31–S49, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="5" content_type="text"> Arnell, N. W.: Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios, Global. Environ. Chang., 14, 31–52, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="6" content_type="text"> Baumgartner, A. and Reichel, E.: The world water balance, Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Amsterdam, The Netherland, Oxford, UK and New York, USA, 1975. </reference>
		<reference numeration="7" content_type="text"> Betts, A. K. and Beljaars, A. C. M.: ECMWF ISLSCP-II near-surface dataset from ERA-40, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK, ERA-40 Project Report Series 8, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="8" content_type="text"> Bhumralkar, C.: Numerical experiments on the computation of ground surface temperature in an atmospheric general circulation model, J. Appl. Meteorol., 14, 1246–1258, 1975. </reference>
		<reference numeration="9" content_type="text"> Bondeau, A., Smith, P. C., Zaehle, S., Schaphoff, S., Lucht, W., Cramer, W., and Gerten, D.: Modelling the role of agriculture for the 20th century global terrestrial carbon balance, Glob. Change Biol., 13, 679–706, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="10" content_type="text"> Boucher, O., Myhre, G., and Myhre, A.: Direct human influence of irrigation on atmospheric water vapour and climate, Clim. Dynam., 22, 597–603, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="11" content_type="text"> Budyko, M. I.: Climate and life, Elsevier, New York, USA, 1974. </reference>
		<reference numeration="12" content_type="text"> Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT): Gridded population of the world version 3 (GPWv3): Population grids, Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="13" content_type="text"> Deardorff, J. W.: Efficient prediction of ground surface temperature and moisture, with inclusion of a layer of vegetation, J. Geophys. Res., 83-C4, 1889–1903, 1978. </reference>
		<reference numeration="14" content_type="text"> Decharme, B. and Douville, H.: Uncertainties in the GSWP-2 precipitation forcing and their impacts on regional and global hydrological simulations, Clim. Dynam., 27, 695–713, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="15" content_type="text"> Department of Water Resources State of California, USA: California water plan update bulletin 160-98, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="16" content_type="text"> Dirmeyer, P. A., Gao, X. A., Zhao, M., Guo, Z. C., Oki, T. K., and Hanasaki, N.: GSWP-2: multimodel analysis and implications for our perception of the land surface, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 87, 1381–1397, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="17" content_type="text"> Döll, P. and Siebert, S.: A digital global map of irrigated areas, ICID J., 49, 55–66, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="18" content_type="text"> Döll, P. and Siebert, S.: Global modeling of irrigation water requirements, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1037, doi:10.1029/2001WR000355, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="19" content_type="text"> Döll, P., Kaspar, F., and Lehner, B.: A global hydrological model for deriving water availability indicators: model tuning and validation, J. Hydrol., 270, 105–134, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="20" content_type="text"> Doorenbos, J. and Pruitt, W. O.: Crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and drainage paper, 24, 1977. </reference>
		<reference numeration="21" content_type="text"> Fekete, B. M., Vorosmarty, C. J., and Grabs, W.: High-resolution fields of global runoff combining observed river discharge and simulated water balances, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16, 1042, doi:10.1029/1999GB001254, available at: http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/html/Data/index.html, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="22" content_type="text"> Food and Agriculture Organization: AQUASTAT, available at: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/main/index.stm, last access: 29 July 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="23" content_type="text"> Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance - hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="24" content_type="text"> Gervois, S., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Viovy, N., Ciais, P., Brisson, N., Seguin, B., and Perrier, A.: Including croplands in a global biosphere model: methodology and evaluation at specific sites, Earth Interactions, 8, 16, 1, available at: http://dods.ipsl.jussieu.fr/orchidee/WEBORCHIDEE/Gervois_EA_EarthInter_2004.pdf, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="25" content_type="text"> Haddeland, I., Skaugen, T., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Anthropogenic impacts on continental surface water fluxes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08406, doi:10.1029/2006GL026047, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="26" content_type="text"> Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., and Oki, T.: A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models, J. Hydrol., 327, 22-41, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="27" content_type="text">%zugehoeriges companion paper! Hanasaki, N., Kanae, S., Oki, T., Masuda, K., Motoya, K., Shirakawa, N., Shen, Y., and Tanaka, K.: An integrated model for the assessment of global water resources – Part~2: Applications and assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., \blackbox\bf to be defined, 2008. </reference>
		<reference numeration="28" content_type="text"> Huffman, G. J., Adler, R. F., Arkin, P., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Gruber, A., Janowiak, J., McNab, A., Rudolf, B., and Schneider, U.: The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 5–20, 1997. </reference>
		<reference numeration="29" content_type="text"> International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD): World register of dams, International Commission on Large Dams, Paris, France, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="30" content_type="text"> Jachner, S., Gerten, D., Rohwer, J., and Bondeau, A.: How much water is used in global irrigated and rainfed agriculture?, Geophys. Res. Abstr., 9, 03325, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="31" content_type="text"> Japan River Association: Statistical yearbook of river discharge (in Japanese), Japan River Association, Tokyo, Japan, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="32" content_type="text"> Kanamitsu, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Woollen, J., Yang, S. K., Hnilo, J. J., Fiorino, M., and Potter, G. L.: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 83, 1631–1643, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="33" content_type="text"> King, J. M., Tharme, R. E., and de Villiers, M. S.: Environmental flow assessments for rivers: Manual for the building block methodology, Report No: TT 131/00, Water Research Commission, Pretoria, South Africa, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="34" content_type="text"> Krysanova, V., Muller-Wohlfeil, D. I., and Becker, A.: Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological water quality model for mesoscale watersheds, Ecol. Model., 106, 261–289, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="35" content_type="text"> Krysanova, V., Wechsung, F., Arnold, J., Srinivasan, R., and Williams, J.: SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) user manual, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="36" content_type="text"> Kundzewicz, Z. W., Mata, L. J., Arnell, N. W., Döll, P., Kabat, P., Jiménez, B., Miller, K. A., Oki, T., Sen, Z., and Shiklomanov, I. A.: Freshwater resources and their management, in: Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J., and Hanson, C. E., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 173–210, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="37" content_type="text"> Leff, B., Ramankutty, N., and Foley, J. A.: Geographic distribution of major crops across the world, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 18, Gb1009, doi:10.1029/2003GB002108, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="38" content_type="text"> Liang, X., Lettenmaier, D. P., Wood, E. F., and Burges, S. J.: A simple hydrologically based model of land-surface water and energy fluxes for general-circulation models, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 99, 14 415–14 428, 1994. </reference>
		<reference numeration="39" content_type="text"> Lobell, D. B., Bala, G., and Duffy, P. B.: Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06708, doi:10.1029/2005GL025492, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="40" content_type="text"> Manabe, S.: Climate and the ocean circulation – 1: The atmospheric circulation and the hydrology of the Earth&apos;s surface, Mon. Weather Rev., 97-11, 739–774, 1969. </reference>
		<reference numeration="41" content_type="text"> McKnight, T. L. and Hess, D.: Climate zones and types, in: Physical geography: a landscape appreciation, edited by: McKnight, T. L. and Hess, D., Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ, USA, 200–240, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="42" content_type="text"> Milly, P. C. D. and Dunne, K. A.: Macroscale water fluxes – 2: Water and energy supply control of their interannual variability, Water Resour. Res., 38, 1206, doi:10.1029/2001WR000760, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="43" content_type="text"> Milly, P. C. D. and Shmakin, A. B.: Global modeling of land water and energy balances – Part 1: the land dynamics (LaD) model, J. Hydrometeorol., 3, 283–299, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="44" content_type="text"> Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation: Handbook on minimum water level investigation (in Japanese), Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transportation, Tokyo, Japan, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="45" content_type="text"> Mo, X., Liu, S., Lin, Z., Xu, Y., Xiang, Y., and McVicar, T. R.: Prediction of crop yield, water consumption and water use efficiency with a SVAT-crop growth model using remotely sensed data on the North China Plain, Ecol. Model., 183, 301–322, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="46" content_type="text"> Motoya, K., Masuda, K., Takata, K., and Oki, T.: Sensitivity of precipitation gauge correction for the estimation of the global water balance, Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 83, Abstract H51A-0775, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="47" content_type="text"> Neitsch, S. L., Arnold, J. G., Kiniry, J. R., Williams, J. R., and King, K. W.: Soil and water assessment tool, theoretical documentation, Version 2000, Texas Water Resources Institute, College Station, Texas, USA, 2002. </reference>
		<reference numeration="48" content_type="text"> New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability – Part 1: development of a 1961–90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology, J. Climate, 12, 829–856, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="49" content_type="text"> New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability – Part~2: development of 1901–1996 monthly grids of terrestrial surface climate, J. Climate, 13, 2217–2238, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="50" content_type="text"> Nijssen, B., O&apos;Donnell, G. M., Lettenmaier, D. P., Lohmann, D., and Wood, E. F.: Predicting the discharge of global rivers, J. Climate, 14, 3307–3323, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="51" content_type="text"> Oki, T. and Sud, Y. C.: Design of total runoff integrating pathways TRIP: a global river channel network, Earth Interactions, 2, EI013, doi:10.1175/1087-3562, 1998. </reference>
		<reference numeration="52" content_type="text"> Oki, T., Nishimura, T., and Dirmeyer, P.: Assessment of annual runoff from land surface models using Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP), J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 77, 235–255, 1999. </reference>
		<reference numeration="53" content_type="text"> Oki, T., Agata, Y., Kanae, S., Saruhashi, T., Yang, D. W., and Musiake, K.: Global assessment of current water resources using total runoff integrating pathways, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 46, 983–995, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="54" content_type="text"> Oki, T., Agata, Y., Kanae, S., Saruhashi, T., and Musiake, K.: Global water resources assessment under climatic change in 2050 using TRIP, IAHS Publication, 280, 124–133, 2003. </reference>
		<reference numeration="55" content_type="text"> Oki, T. and Kanae, S.: Global hydrological cycles and world water resources, Science, 313, 1068–1072, 2006. </reference>
		<reference numeration="56" content_type="text"> Osborne, T. M., Lawrence, D. M., Challinor, A. J., Slingo, J. M., and Wheeler, T. R.: Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model, Glob. Change. Biol., 13, 169–183, 2007. </reference>
		<reference numeration="57" content_type="text"> Robock, A., Vinnikov, K. Y., Schlosser, C. A., Speranskaya, N. A., and Xue, Y. K.: Use of mid-latitude soil-moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil-moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models, J. Climate, 8, 15–35, 1995. </reference>
		<reference numeration="58" content_type="text"> Rudolf, B., Hauschild, H., Rueth, W., and Schneider, U.: Terrestrial precipitation analysis: operational method and required density of point measurements, in: Global precipitations and climate change, edited by: Desbois, M. and Desalmand, F., NATO ASI I/26, Springer Verlag, Berlin, Germany, 173–186, 1994. </reference>
		<reference numeration="59" content_type="text"> Sevruk, B.: Method of correction for systematic error in point precipitation measurement for operational use, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 91 pp., 1982. </reference>
		<reference numeration="60" content_type="text"> Sevruk, B. and Hamon, W. R.: International comparison of national precipitation gauges with a reference pit gauge, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, WMO/CIMO Instruments and Observing Methods Rep. 17, 135, 1984. </reference>
		<reference numeration="61" content_type="text"> Shen, Y., Oki, T., Utsumi, N., Kanae, S., and Hanasaki, N.: Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 53, 11–33, 2008 </reference>
		<reference numeration="62" content_type="text"> Shiklomanov, I. A.: Appraisal and assessment of world water resources, Water Int., 25, 11–32, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="63" content_type="text"> Shirakawa, N.: A conceptual framework for global estimation of environmental flow, J. Hydraul. Eng.-JSCE, 48, 421–426, 2004. </reference>
		<reference numeration="64" content_type="text"> Shirakawa, N.: Global estimation of environmental flow requirement based on river runoff seasonality, J. Hydraul. Eng.-JSCE, 49, 391–396, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="65" content_type="text"> Stackhouse Jr., P. W., Gupta, S. K., Cox, S. J., Chiacchio, M., and Mikovitz, J. C.: The SRB project release 2 data set: an update, GEWEX News, 10-3, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="66" content_type="text"> Tanaka, K., Yorozu, K., Hamabe, R., and Ikebuchi, S.: Validation of the GSWP2 baseline simulation, 85th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 19th Conference on Hydrology, San Diego, CA, USA, 9–13 January 2005, Paper 6.2, 2005. </reference>
		<reference numeration="67" content_type="text"> Tennant, D.: Instream flow regimens for fish, wildlife, recreation and related environmental resources, Fisheries, 1, 6–10, 1976. </reference>
		<reference numeration="68" content_type="text"> Vörösmarty, C. J., Green, P., Salisbury, J., and Lammers, R. B.: Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth, Science, 289, 284–288, 2000. </reference>
		<reference numeration="69" content_type="text"> Williams, J. R.: The EPIC, in: Computer models of watershed hydrology, edited by: Singh, V. P., Water Resources Publications, Littleton, CO, USA, 909–1000, 1995. </reference>
		<reference numeration="70" content_type="text"> Yamazaki, T.: A one-dimensional land surface model adaptable to intensely cold regions and its application in Eastern Siberia, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 79, 1107–1118, 2001. </reference>
		<reference numeration="71" content_type="text"> Zhao, M. and Dirmeyer, P. A.: Production and analysis of GSWP-2 near-surface meteorology data sets, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, COLA Technical Report 159, 2003. </reference>
	</references>
</article>

