Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 12 6 2008 10.5194/hess-12-1369-2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1369/2008/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1369/2008/hess-12-1369-2008.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1369/2008/hess-12-1369-2008.pdf 1369 1385 2008-12-15 Predicting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium J. Dams jefdams@vub.ac.be S. T. Woldeamlak O. Batelaan Dept. of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium Dept. Earth and Environmental Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200E, 3001 Heverlee, Belgium Land-use changes are frequently indicated to be one of the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. For land-use change, groundwater research has mainly focused on the change in water quality thereby neglecting changes in quantity. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use changes, from 2000 until 2020, on the hydrological balance and in particular on groundwater quantity, as results from a case study in the Kleine Nete basin, Belgium. New is that this study tests a methodology, which couples a land-use change model with a water balance and a steady-state groundwater model. Four future land-use scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are modelled with the CLUE-S model. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow model. Results show that the average recharge decreases with 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2, respectively, over the 20 covered years. 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