Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 12 1 2008 10.5194/hess-12-159-2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/159/2008/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/159/2008/hess-12-159-2008.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/159/2008/hess-12-159-2008.pdf 159 175 2008-01-31 Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability P. J. Ward philip.ward@falw.vu.nl H. Renssen J. C. J. H. Aerts R. T. van Balen J. Vandenberghe Institute of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m³ s^−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m³ s^−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m³ s^−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m³ s^−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism. Aerts, J. C. J. H. and Bouwer, L. M.: STREAM Krishna. A hydrological model for the Krishna River in India, RIKZ/Coastal Zone Management Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands, www.geo.vu.nl/users/ivmstream/public/aerts&bouwer2002a.pdf, 2002. Aerts, J. C. J. H., Kriek, M., and Schepel, M.: STREAM (Spatial Tools for River Basins and Environment and Analysis of Management Options): Set Up and Requirements, Phys. Chem. Earth B. 24(6), 591–595, 1999. Aerts, J. C. J. H., Renssen, H., Ward, P. J., De Moel, H., Odada, E., Bouwer, L. M., and Goosse, H.: Sensitivity of global river discharges under Holocene and future climate conditions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L19401, doi:10.1029/2006GL027493, 2006. Andréassian, V.: Waters and forests: from historical controversy to scientific debate, J. Hydrol., 291, 1–27, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.12.015, 2004. Ashagrie, A. G., De Laat, P. J. M., De Wit, M. J. M., Tu, M., and Uhlenbrook, S.: Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin - the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 691–701, 2006. Berendsen, H. J. A. and Stouthamer, E.: Palaeogeographic development of the Rhine-Meuse delta, The Netherlands, Koninklijke Van Gorcum, Assen, The Netherlands, 2001. Berger, H. E. J.: Flow Forecasting for the River Meuse, Ph.D thesis, Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft, The Netherlands, 1992. Bohncke, S. J. P. and Vandenberghe, J.: Palaeohydrological development in the Southern Netherlands during the last 15000 years, in: Temperate palaeohydrology, edited by: Starkel, L., Gregory, K. J., and Thornes, J. B., John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, U.K, 253–281, 1991. Bohncke, S. J. P., Vandenberghe, J., Coope, R., and Reiling, R.: Geomorphology and palaeoecology of the Mark valley (southern Netherlands), II Palaeoecology and climate during the Weichselian Late Glacial, Boreas, 16, 69–85, 1987. Booij, M. J.: Appropriate modelling of climate change impacts on river flooding, Ph.D thesis, Universiteit Twente, The Netherlands, 2002. Booij, M. J.: Impact of climate change on river flooding assessed with different spatial model resolutions, J. Hydrol., 303(1–4), 176–198, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.07.013, 2005. Bosch, J. M. and Hewlett, J. D.: A review of catchment experiments to determine the effect of vegetation changes on water yield evaporation, J. Hydrol., 55, 3–23, 1982. Bouwer, L. M., Vermaat, J. E., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Winter atmospheric circulation and river discharge in northwest Europe, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L06403, doi:10.1029/2005GL025548, 2006. Brovkin, V., Bendtsen, J., Claussen, M., Ganopolski, A., Kubatzki, C., Petoukhov, V., and Andreev, A.: Carbon cycle, vegetation, and climate dynamics in the Holocene: Experiments with the CLIMBER-2 model, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 16(4), 1139, doi:10.1029/2001GB001662, 2002. Brovkin, V., Claussen, M., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Kicklighter, D., Loutre, M.-F., Matthews, H. D., Ramankutty, N., Schaeffer, M., and Sokolov, A.: Biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes simulated by six Earth system models of intermediate complexity, Clim. Dynam., 26, 587–600, doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0092-6, 2006. Brown, A. E., Zhang, L., McMahon, T. A., Western, A. W., and Vertessy, R.: A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation, J. Hydrol., 310, 28–61, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.12.010, 2005. Bultot, F., Coppens, A., Dupriez, G. L., Gellens, D., and Meulenberghs, F.: Repercussions of a CO₂ doubling on the water cycle and on the water balance – A case study for Belgium, J. Hydrol., 99(3–4), 319–347, 1988. Bultot, F., Dupriez, G. L., and Gellens, G.: Simulation of land use changes and impacts on the water balance – case study for Belgium, J. Hydrol., 114, 327–348, 1990. Bunnik, F. P. M.: Pollenanalytische Ergebnisse zur Vegetations- und Land-wirtschaftsgeschichte der Jülicher Lößbörde von der Bronzezeit bis in die frühe Neuzeit, Bonner Jahrbücher, 195, 313–349, 1995. Calder, I. R.: Hydrologic effects of land use change, in: Handbook of Hydrology, edited by: Maidment, D. R., McGraw-Hill Inc., New York, 13.1–13.50, 1993. Coe, M. T. and Harrison, S. P.: The water balance of northern Africa during the Mid-Holocene: an evaluation of the 6 ka BP PMIP simulations, Clim. Dynam., 19, 155–166, 2002. Cosandey, C., Andréassian, V., Martin, C., Didon-Lescot, J. F., Lavabre, J., Folton, N., Mathys, N., and Richard, D.: The hydrological impact of the mediterranean forest: a review of French research, J. Hydrol., 301, 235–249, 2005. Costa, M. H., Botta, A., and Cardille, J. A.: Effects of large-scale changes in land cover on the discharge of the Tocantins River, Southeastern Amazonia, J. Hydrol., 283, 206–217, doi:10.1016/S0022-1694(03)00267-1, 2003. De Moor, J. J. W.: Human impact on Holocene catchment development and fluvial processes – the Geul River catchment, SE Netherlands, Ph.D thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2007. De Wit, M., Warmerdam, P., Torfs, P., Uijlenhout, R., Roulin, E., Cheymol, A., Van Deursen, W., Van Walsum, P., Ververs, M., Kwadijk, J., and Buiteveld, H.: Effect of climate change on the hydrology of the river Meuse. Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Report number 410.200.090, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands, 2001. De Wit, M. J. M., Van den Hurk, B., Warmerdam, P. M. M., Torfs, P. J. J. F., Roulin, E., and Van Deursen, W. P. A.: Impact of climate change on low-flows in the river Meuse, Climatic Change, 82(3–4), 1573–1480, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9195-2, 2007. Dutoo, D.: Onderzoeksproject Watersnood Maas. Het areaal onder bos in het Franse maasbekken van 1908 tot 1988, Universiteit Gent, Gent, Belgium, 1994. EEA: Sustainable water use in Europe. Part 3: Extreme hydrological events: floods and droughts, Environmental issue report No. 21, EEA, Copenhagen, Denmark, http://reports.eea.europa.eu/Environmental_Issues_No_21/en, 2001. Fahey, B.: The effect of plantation forestry on water yield in New Zealand, New Zealand Forestry, 39(3), 18–23, 1994. FAO: Digital Soil Map of the World (DSMW) Version 3.6 (CD-ROM), Land and Water Development Division, FAO, Rome, Italy, 2003. Gallart, F. and Llorens, P.: Observations on land cover changes and water resources in the headwaters of the Ebro catchment, Iberian Peninsula, Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 29, 769–773, 2004. Gellens, D. and Roulin, E.: Streamflow response of Belgian catchments to IPCC climate change scenarios, J. Hydrol., 210(1–4), 242–258, 1998. Gentry, A. H. and Parody, J. L.: Deforestation and increased flooding of the Upper Amazon, Science, 210, 1354–1356, 1980. Goosse, H. and Fichefet, T.: Importance of ice-ocean interactions for the global ocean circulation: a model study, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 104(C10), 23 337–23 355, 1999. Goosse, H., Renssen, H., Timmermann, A., and Bradley, R. S.: Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 24(12–13), 1345–1360, 2005. Goosse, H., Arzel, O., Luterbacher, J., Mann, M. E., Renssen, H., Riedwyl, N., Timmermann, A., Xoplaki, E., and Wanner, H.: The origin of the European "Medieval Warm Period", Clim. Past, 2, 99–113, 2006. Gotjé, W., Van Wayjen, M. C. A., and Van Geel, B.: A palynological study of a Holocene deposit from Grand-Bongard (Hautes-Fagnes, Belgium), Geologie en Mijnbouw, 69, 227–241, 1990. Henrard, D.: The Mesolithic of the Ourthe Basin: Landscape settlement and Neolithisation, L'anthropologie, 107, 615–644, 2003. Hofstede, J. L. A., Berendsen, H. J. A., and Janssen, C. R.: Holocene palaeogeography and palaeoecology of the fluvial area near Maurik (Neder-Betuwe, The Netherlands), Geologie en Mijnbouw, 68, 409–419, 1989. Hornbeck, J. W., Adams, M. B., Corbett, E. S., Verry, E. S., and Lynch, J. A.: Long-term impacts of forest treatment on water yield: a summary for Northeastern USA, J. Hydrol., 150, 323–343, 1993. Iroumé, A., Huber, A., and Schulz, K.: Summer flows in experimental catchments with different forest covers, Chile, J. Hydrol., 300, 300–313, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.014, 2005. Jones, J. A.: Hydrologic processes and peak discharge response to forest removal, regrowth, and roads in 10 small experimental basins, western Cascades, Oregon, Water Resour. Res., 36(9), 2621–2642, 2000. Keesstra, S. D.: The effects of natural reforestation on the hydrology, river morphology and sediment budget of the Dragonja River catchment, SW Slovenia, Ph.D thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2006. Klein Tank, A. M. G., Wijngaard, J. B., Können, G. P., Böhm, R., Demarée, G., Gocheva, A., Mileta, M., Pashiardis, S., Hejkrlik, L., Kern-Hansen, C., Heino, R., Bessemoulin, P., Müller-Westermeier, G., Tzanakou, M., Szalai, S., Pálsdóttir, T., Fitzgerald, D., Rubin, S., Capaldo, M., Maugeri, M., Leitass, A., Bukantis, A., Aberfeld, R., Van Engelen, A. F. V., Forland, E., Mietus, M., Coelho, F., Mares, C., Razuvaev, V., Nieplova, E., Cegnar, T., Antonio López, J., Dahlström, B., Moberg, A., Kirchhofer, W., Ceylan, A., Pachaliuk, O., Alexander, O. V., and Petrovic, P.: Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment, Int. J. Climatol., 22(12), 1441–1453, 2002. Klöcking, B. and Haberlandt, U.: Impact of land use changes on water dynamics – a case study in temperate meso and macro scale river basins, Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 27(9), 619–629, 2002. Knol, W. C., Kramer, H., and Gijsbertse, H.: Historisch grondgebruik Nederland: een landelijke reconstructie van het grondgebruik rond 1900, Alterra report 573, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands, http://library.wur.nl/wasp/bestanden/LUWPUBRD_00328279_A502_001.pdf, 2004. Kwadijk, J. C. J.: The impact of climate change on the discharge of the River Rhine, Ph.D thesis, Universiteit Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands, 1993. Kwadijk, J. and Rotmans, J.: The impact of climate change on the River Rhine: a scenario study, Climatic Change, 30, 397–425, 1995. Leander, R. and Buishand, T. A.: Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows, J. Hydrol., 332, 487–496, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2006.08.006, 2007. Leander, R., Buishand, A., Aalders, P., and De Wit, M.: Estimation of extreme floods of the river Meuse using a stochastic weather generator and a rainfall-runoff model, Hydrol. Sci. J., 50(6), 1089–1103, 2005. Mahe, G., Paturel, J.-E., Servat, E., Conway, D., and Dezetter, A.: The impact of land use change on soil water holding capacity and river flow modelling in the Nakambe River, Burkina-Faso, J. Hydrol., 300, 33–43, 2005. Matthews, H. D., Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., and Meissner, K. J.: Radiative forcing of climate by historical land cover change, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(2), 1055, doi:10.1029/2002GL016098, 2003. Middelkoop, H. and Parmet, B.: Assessment of the impact of climate change on peak flows in the Netherlands – a matter of scale, in: Proceedings of the second international conference on climate and water, edited by: Lemellä, R. and Helenius, N., Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo, Finland, 20–33, 1998. Mitchell, T. D. and Jones, P. D.: An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, Int. J. Climatol., 25, 693–712, 2005. Opsteegh, J. D., Haarsma, R. J., Selten, F. M., and Kattenberg, A.: ECBILT: a dynamic alternative to mixed boundary conditions in ocean models, Tellus, 50A, 348–367, 1998. Pfister, L., Humbert, J., and Hoffmann, L.: Recent trends in rainfall-runoff characteristics in the Alzette river basin, Luxembourg, Climatic Change, 45, 323–337, 2000. Pfister, L., Kwadijk, J., Musy, A., Bronstert, A., and Hoffmann, L.: Climate change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine-Meuse basins, River Res. Appl., 20, 229–241, 2004. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Fichefet, T., Brovkin, V., Driesschaert, E., and Wolk, F.: Simulating the Holocene climate evolution at northern high latitudes using a coupled atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean-vegetation model, Clim. Dynam., 24(1), 23–43, 2005. Robinson, M., Gannon, B., and Schuch, M.: A comparison of the hydrology of moorland under natural conditions, agricultural use and forestry, Hydrol. Sci. J., 36, 565–577, 1991. Robinson, M., Cognard-Plancq, A.-L., Cosandey, C., David, J., Durand, P., Fürhrer, H.-W., Hall, R., Hendriques, M. O., Marc, V., McCarthy, R., McDonnell, M., Martin, C., Nisbet, T., O'Dea, P., Rodgers, M., and Zollner, A.: Studies of the impact of forests on peak flows and baseflows: a European perspective, Forest Ecol. Manag., 186, 85–97, doi:10.1016/S0378-1127(03)00238-X, 2003. RWS Limburg/IWACO: Internationale ecologische verkenning Maas (EVIM). Historisch ecologische ori\"entatie op het stroomgebied (fase 2a), Rijkswaterstaat Directie Limburg, Afdeling Integraal Waterbeleid, Maastricht, The Netherlands, 2000. Sahin, V. and Hall, M. J.: The effects of afforestation and deforestation on water yields, J. Hydrol., 178, 293–309, 1996. Scott, D. F., Bruijnzeel, L. A., and Mackensen, J.: The hydrological and soil impacts of forestation in the tropics, in: Forests, water and people in the humid tropics, edited by: Bonell, M. and Bruijnzeel, L. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 622–651, 2005. Thornthwaite, C. W.: An approach toward a rational classification of climate, Geogr. Rev., 38, 55–94, 1948. Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R.: Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance, Publications in Climatology, 10, 183–243, 1957. Trimble, S. W., Weirich, F. H., and Hoag, B. L.: Reforestation and the reduction of water yield on the southern Piedmont since circa 1940, Water Resour. Res., 23, 425–437, 1987. Tu, M.: Assessment of the effects of climate variability and land use change on the hydrology of the Meuse river basin. Ph.D thesis, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands and UNESCO-IHE, Delft, The Netherlands, 2006. Van Deursen, W.: MEUSEFLOW 2.1, Laagwaterstudies Maasstroomgebied. Report number RI-2988A, RIZA, Arnhem, The Netherlands, www.carthago.nl/Publications/MeuseLaagwater.PDF, 2000. Van Geel, B., Buurman, J., and Waterbolk, H. T.: Archaeological and palaeoecological indications of an abrupt climate change in The Netherlands, and evidence for climatological teleconnections around 2650 BP, J. Quaternary Sci., 11(6), 451–460, 1996. Ward, P. J.: A coupled climate-hydrological model for Meuse palaeodischarge modeling: set-up and calibration. Technical report July 2007, Department of Palaeoclimatology and Geomorphology, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, http://ivm5.ivm.vu.nl/adaptation/project/files/File/Documents/Report_Meusepalaeo_Methods.pdf, 2007. Ward, P. J., Aerts, J. C. J. H., De Moel, H., and Renssen, H.: Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records, Global Planet. Change, 57, 283–300, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.12.002, 2007. Ward, R. C. and Robinson, M.: Principles of hydrology, McGraw-Hill Book Company, London, UK, 1990. Wegehenkel, M.: Estimating of impact of land use changes using the conceptual model THESEUS – a case study, Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 27, 631–640, 2002. WL: Onderzoek Watersnood Maas. Achtergrondrapport 1. Hydrolgie, Deel A + B. Onderzoeksproject Watersnood Maas, Het Belgische stroombekken. Waterloopkundig Laboratorium, Delft, The Netherlands, 1994a. WL: Onderzoek Watersnood Maas. Deelrapport 4. Hydrologische aspecten, Waterloopkundig Laboratorium, Emmeloord, The Netherlands, 1994b. Zagwijn, W. H.: Nederland in het Holoceen. Rijks Geologische Dienst, Haarlem, The Netherlands, 1986. Zagwijn, W. H.: Reconstruction of climate change during the Holocene in western and central Europe based on pollen records of indicator species, Veg. Hist. Archaeobot., 3, 65–88, 1994.