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Modelling the effects of climate on long-term patterns of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the surface waters of a boreal catchment
1Watershed Ecosystems Graduate Program, Trent University, Peterborough, K9J 7B8, Canada
2Department of Forest Ecology, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 27, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
3Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland
*now at: Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, AB15 8QH, UK
Abstract. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations ([DOC]) in surface waters are increasing in many regions of Europe and North America. These increases are likely driven by a combination of changing climate, recovery from acidification and change in severity of winter storms in coastal areas. INCA-C, a process-based model of climate effects on surface water [DOC], was used to explore the mechanisms by which changing climate controls seasonal to inter-annual patterns of [DOC] in the lake and outflow stream of a small Finnish catchment between 1990 and 2003. Both production in the catchment and mineralization in the lake controlled [DOC] in the lake. Concentrations in the catchment outflow were controlled by rates of DOC production in the surrounding organic soils. The INCA-C simulation results were compared to those obtained using artificial neural networks (ANN). In general, "black box" ANN models provide better fits to observed data but process-based models can identify the mechanism responsible for the observed pattern. A statistically significant increase was observed in both INCA-C modelled and measured annual average [DOC] in the lake. This suggests that some of the observed increase in surface water [DOC] is caused by climate-related processes operating in the lake and catchment. However, a full understanding of surface water [DOC] dynamics can only come from catchment-scale process-based models linking the effects of changing climate and deposition on aquatic and terrestrial environments.
Final Revised Paper (PDF, 1117 KB) Discussion Paper (HESSD)
Citation: Futter, M. N., Starr, M., Forsius, M., and Holmberg, M.: Modelling the effects of climate on long-term patterns of dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the surface waters of a boreal catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 437-447, 2008. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
