Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 12 2 2008 10.5194/hess-12-449-2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/449/2008/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/449/2008/hess-12-449-2008.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/449/2008/hess-12-449-2008.pdf 449 463 2008-03-05 Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland M. Posch max.posch@mnp.nl J. Aherne M. Forsius S. Fronzek N. Veijalainen Coordination Centre for Effects, PBL, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands Environmental and Resource Studies, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), P.O. Box 140, 00251 Helsinki, Finland The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. 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