Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 12 3 2008 10.5194/hess-12-739-2008 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/739/2008/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/739/2008/hess-12-739-2008.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/739/2008/hess-12-739-2008.pdf 739 749 2008-05-15 Systems Analysis – a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive M. Bruen michael.bruen@ucd.ie Centre for Water Resources Research, University College Dublin, Newstead, Belfield, Dublin 4, Ireland In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. Benayoun, R., Roy, B., and Sussman, N.: Manual de Referance du Programme ELECTRE, Note de Synthèse et Formation, No. 25, Direction Scientifique SEMA, Paris, 1966. Bertalanffy, L. von: General System Theory: Foundations, Development, Applications, George Braziller, New York, 1968. Bruce, C.: Modelling the environmental collaboration process: A deductive approach, Ecological Economics, 59, 275–286, 2006. Bruen, M.: End-User level of service requirements, Carpe Diem Project report 11.2, available at: http://carpediem.am.ub.es/results/deliverables/Del_11.2_EndUSERREPORT2.pdf, (accessed Feb 2008), 2005. Bruen, M.: Introduction to decision support systems, in: River basin modelling for flood risk mitigation, Taylor & Francis, London, 235–248, 2006. Burus, N.: Scientific allocation of water resources, American Elsevier Publishing Co, New York, 209 pp., 1972. Checkland, P.: Soft systems methodology: a thirty year retrospective, Systems Research and Behavioural Science, 17(S1), S11–S58, 2000. Damart, S., Dias, L. C., and Mousseau, V.: Supporting groups in sorting decisions: Methodology and use of a multi-criteria aggregation/disaggregation DSS, Decis. Support Syst., 43(4), 1464–1475, 2007. De Bono, E.: The Use of Lateral Thinking, Jonathan Cape, London, 1967. De Neufville, R.: Applied systems analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1990. de Steiguer, J. E., Duberstein, J., and Lopes, V.: The Analytic Hierarchy Process as a Means for Integrated Watershed Management, in Proceedings of the First Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds, USDA, 736–740, 2003. Dinka, D. and Lundberg, J.: Identity and role-A qualitative case study of cooperative scenario building, Int. J. Human-Computer Studies 64, 1049–1060, 2006 Eden, C.: Using Cognitive Mapping for Strategic Alternatives Development and Analysis (SODA), in Rational Analysis for a Problematic World, Wiley, Chichester, 1990. Efstratiadis, A. and Koutsoyiannis, D.: An evolutionary annealing-simplex algorithm for global optimisation of water resource systems, in: Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, IWA Publishing, UK, 1423–1428, 2002. Galbraith, J. K.: A History of Economics: The Past as the Present, Penguin, UK, 1991. Gill, P. E., Murray, W., and Wright, M. H.: Practical Optimization, Academic Press, London, 1981. Giordano, R., Passarella, G., Uricchio, V. F., and Vurro, M.: Fuzzy cognitive maps for issue identification in a water resources conflict resolution system, Phys. Chem. Earth, 30, 463–469, 2005. Giupponi, C., Mysiak, J., Fassio, A., and Cogan V.: MULINO-DSS: a computer tool for sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale, Math. Comput. Simulat., 64, 13–24, 2004. Haemaelaeinen, R. P., Kettunen, E., Ehtamo, H., and Marttunen, M.: Evaluating a Framework for Multi-Stakeholder Decision Support in Water Resources Management, Group Decis. Negot., 10(4), 331–353, 2001. Hajkowicz, S. and Collins, K.: A Review of Multiple Criteria Analysis for Water Resource Planning and Management, J. Water Resources Management, 21(9), 1553–1566, 2007. Hämäläinen, R. P.: Decisionarium – Aiding Decisions, Negotiating and Collecting Opinions on the Web, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 12(2–3), 101–110, 2003. Hannon, B. and Ruth, M.: Dynamic Modeling (Mac Version), Springer-Verlag, New York, 248 pp., 1994 Haseman, W. D., Nazareth, D. L. and Paul, S.: Implementation of a group decision support system utilising collective memory, Information and Management, 42, 591–605, 2005. Heathcote, I. W.: Integrated Watershed Management: Principles and Practices, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1998. Jamieson, D.: An integrated, multi-functional approach to water resources management, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 31(4), 501–514, 1986. Innes, J. E. and Booher, D. E.: Consensus building and Complex Adaptive Systems: A Framework for Evaluating Collaborative Planning, Journal of Planning Association, 65(4), 412–423, 1999. Ison, R. and Watson, D.: Illuminating the possibilities for social learning in the management of Scotland's water, Ecology and Society, 12(1), 21, available at: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art21/ (accessed Feb 2008), 2007. Janssen, M. A. and Goosen, H., and Omtzigt, N.: A simple mediation and negotiation support tool for water management in the Netherlands, Landscape Urban Plan., 78, 71–84, 2006. Kalman, R. E.: A new approach to linear filtering and prediction problems, Transactions of the A.S.M.E., J. Basic-Eng-D, 82, 35–45, 1960. Kearney, A. and Kaplan, S.: Toward a methodology for the measurement of knowledge structures of ordinary people - The conceptual concept cognitive map (3CM), Environ. Behav., 29, 385–415, 1997. Keeney, R. L. and Raiffa, H.: Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1993. Kelly, G. A.: The psychology of personal constructs, Norton, New York, 1955. Kemp, R. V., Bennett, D. G., and White, M. J.: Recent trends and developments in dialogue on radioactive waste management: Experience from the UK., Environment International, 2006. Kolkman, M. J., Kok, M., and van der Veen, A.: Mental model mapping as a new tool to analyse the use of information in decision-making in integrated water management, Phys. Chem. Earth, 30, 317–332, 2005. Limayem, M., Banerjee, P., and Ma, L.: Impact of GDSS: Opening the black box, Decis. Support Syst., 42(2), 945–957, 2006. Lourenco, R. P. and Costa, J. P.: Incorporating citizens' views in local policy decision making processes, Decis. Support Syst., 43(4), 1499–1511, 2007. Makowski, M., Somlyody, L. and Watkins, D.: Multiple Criteria Analysis for Regional Water Quality Management – the Nitra River case, Working paper 95-022, IIASA, Austria, 1997. Massam, B.: Spatial Search, Pergamon Press, 1988. May, R. M.: Will a Large Complex System be Stable?, Nature, 238, 413–414, 1974. Miller, G. A.: The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits On Our Capacity For Processing Information, The Psychological Review, 63, 81–97, 1956. Moreno-Jimenez, J. M. and Polasek, W.: e-Democracy and knowledge. A multicriteria framework for the new democratic era, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 12(2–3), 163–176, 2003. Odum, H.: Ecological and General Systems: An introduction to systems ecology, Colorado University Press, Colorado, 1994. Odum, H. and Odum, E.: Modelling for all scales – An introduction to systems simulation, Academic Press, New York, 2000. Osborn, A. F.: Applied imagination: Principles and procedures of creative problem solving, New York, Charles Scribner's Sons, 1963. Ossenbrugger, P. J.: Systems Analysis for Civil Engineers, Wiley, New York, 1984. Pahl-Wostl, C.: Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change, Water Resources Management, 21, 49–62, 2007a. Pahl-Wostl, C.: The implications of complexity for integrated resources management, Environ. Modell. Softw., 22, 561–569, 2007b. Regan, H. M., Colyvan, M., and Markovchich-Nicholls, L.: A formal model for consensus and negotiation in environmental management, J. Environ. Manage., 80, 167–176, 2006. Rios-Insua, D., Holgado, J., and Morena, R.: Multicriteria e-Negotiation Systems for e-Democracy, Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 12, 213–218, 2003. Rogers, M. G., Bruen, M., and Maystre, L.-Y.: ELECTRE and Decision Support: Methods and Applications in Engineering and Infrastructure Investment, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 208 pp., 1999. Rogers, M. G. and Bruen, M. P.: Non-monetary Decision-Aid techniques in EIA – An Overview, Paper 10746, Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Municipal Engineer, 109, June, 88–103, 1995. Rogers, M. G. and Bruen, M. P.: A New System for Weighting Criteria within Electre, Eur. J. Oper. Res., 107(3), 552–563, 1998. Roy, B.: Classement et choix en présence de points de vue multiples (la méthode ELECTRE), La Revue d'Informatique et de Recherche Opérationelle (RIRO), 8, 57–75, 1968. Roy, B., Slowinski, R., and Treichel, W.: Multicriteria programming of water supply systems for rural areas, Water Resour. Bull., 28, 13–31, 1992. Rubio, J. A., Rios-Insua, D., Rios, J., and Fernandez, E.: Quixote: Supporting Group Decisions Through the Web, in: E-Government Towards Electronic Democracy, Proceedings of an International Conference, Bolzano, Springer, Berlin, 225–234, 2005. Saaty, T. L.: The Analytic Hierarchy Process, McGraw-Hill, 1980. Saaty, T. L.: A Scaling for Priorities in Hierarchical Structures, J. Math. Psychol., 15, 207–218, 1977. Sharma, M. and Norton, B. G.: A policy decision tool for integrated environmental assessment, Environ. Sci. Policy, 8(4), 356–366, 2005. Shirani, A. I.: Sampling and pooling of decision-relevant information: Comparing the efficiency of face-to-face and GSS supported groups, Information and Management, 43, 521–529, 2006. Srdjevic, B.: Linking analytic hierarchy process and social choice methods to support group decision-making in water management, Decis. Support Syst., 42(4), 2261–2273, 2007. Tan, C. O. and Ozesmi, U.: A generic shallow lake ecosystem model based on collective expert knowledge, Hydrobiologia, 563, 125–142, 2006. Tang, S. L. and Ellis, K. V.: Wastewater Treatment Optimisation Model for Developing World. Part I: Model Development, ASCE Journal of Environmental Engineering, 117(4), 501–518, 1991. Tippett, J.: Policies and Tools for Sustainable Water Management in the European Union, Environ. Modell. Softw., 20(2), 119–139, 2005. Tippett, J.: A participatory protocol for ecologically informed design within river catchments, Ph.D. thesis, School of Planning and Landscape, University of Manchester, UK, 2004. Tippett, J., Searle, B., Pahl-Wostl, C., and Rees, Y.: Social learning in public participation in river basin management – early findings from HarmoniCOP European case studies, Environ. Sci. Policy, 8(3), 287–299, 2005. Triantaphyllou, E.: Two New Cases of Ranking Reversals When the AHP and Some of Its Additive Variants Are Used that do not Occur with the Multiplicative AHP, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, 10, 11–25, 2001 Turoff, M., Hiltz, S. R., Cho, H. K., Li, Z., and Wang, Y.: Social Decision Support Systems (SDSS), in: Proc. 35th Hawaii International Conference on Systems Science, Vol 1, paper no 11, 2002. Wang, X. and Triantaphyllou, E.: Ranking irregularities when evaluating alternatives by using some ELECTRE methods, Omega, 36, 45–63, 2008 Wilson, D. and Droste, R.: Design consideration for watershed management decision support systems, Water Quality Res. J. Canada, 35(2), 163–188, 2000. Vatn, A.: Resource regimes and cooperation, Land Use Policy, 24(4), 624–632. 2007. Vincke, P.: Multicriteria Decision Aid, John Wiley, Van Delft and Nijkamp, 1992.