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www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/2233/2009/
doi:10.5194/hess-13-2233-2009
© Author(s) 2009. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Extracting statistical parameters of extreme precipitation from a NWP model
1University of Iceland, Institute of Environmental and Civil Engineering, Iceland
2Institute for Meteorological Research, Reykjavik, Iceland
3Icelandic Meteorological Office, Iceland
Abstract. Precipitation simulations on an 8×8 km grid using the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model MM5 are used to estimate the M5 and Ci statistical parameters in order to support the M5 map used for flood estimates by Icelandic engineers. It is known a priori that especially wind anomalies occur on a considerably smaller scale than 8 km. The simulation period used is 1962–2005 and 73 meteorological stations have records long enough in this period to provide a validation data set. Of these only one station is in the central highlands, so the highland values of the existing M5 map are estimates. A comparison between the simulated values and values based on station observations set shows an M5 average difference (observed-simulated) of −5 mm/24 h with a standard deviation of 17 mm, 3 outliers excluded. This is within expected limits, computational and observational errors considered. A suggested correction procedure brings these values down to 4 mm and 11 mm, respectively.
Final Revised Paper (PDF, 1217 KB) Discussion Paper (HESSD)
Citation: Eliasson, J., Rögnvaldsson, O., and Jonsson, T.: Extracting statistical parameters of extreme precipitation from a NWP model, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2233-2240, doi:10.5194/hess-13-2233-2009, 2009. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager XML
