Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 13 4 2009 10.5194/hess-13-491-2009 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/491/2009/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/491/2009/hess-13-491-2009.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/491/2009/hess-13-491-2009.pdf 491 502 2009-04-09 The dynamics of cultivation and floods in arable lands of Central Argentina E. F. Viglizzo evigliz@cpenet.com.ar E. G. Jobbágy L. Carreño F. C. Frank R. Aragón L. De Oro V. Salvador INTA, Centro Regional La Pampa, Area of Environmental Management, Av. Spinetto 785, P.O. Box 302, 6300 Santa Rosa, La Pampa, Argentina CONICET, Av. Spinetto 785, P.O. Box 302, 6300 Santa Rosa, La Pampa, Argentina Grupo de Estudios Ambientales IMASL, Ej. de los Andes 950 5700 San Luis, San Luis, Argentina Although floods in watersheds have been associated with land-use change since ancient times, the dynamics of flooding is still incompletely understood. In this paper we explored the relations between rainfall, groundwater level, and cultivation to explain the dynamics of floods in the extremely flat and valuable arable lands of the Quinto river watershed, in central Argentina. The analysis involved an area of 12.4 million hectare during a 26-year period (1978–2003), which comprised two extensive flooding episodes in 1983–1988 and 1996–2003. Supported by information from surveys as well as field and remote sensing measurements, we explored the correlation among precipitation, groundwater levels, flooded area and land use. Flood extension was associated to the dynamics of groundwater level. While no correlation with rainfall was recorded in lowlands, a significant correlation (<i>P</i>&lt;0.01) between groundwater and rainfall in highlands was found when estimations comprise a time lag of one year. Correlations between groundwater level and flood extension were positive in all cases, but while highly significant relations (<i>P</i>&lt;0.01) were found in highlands, non significant relations (<i>P</i>&gt;0.05) predominate in lowlands. Our analysis supports the existence of a cyclic mechanism driven by the reciprocal influence between cultivation and groundwater in highlands. This cycle would involve the following stages: (a) cultivation boosts the elevation of groundwater levels through decreased evapotranspiration; (b) as groundwater level rises, floods spread causing a decline of land cultivation; (c) flooding propitiates higher evapotranspiration favouring its own retraction; (d) cultivation expands again following the retreat of floods. Thus, cultivation would trigger a destabilizing feedback self affecting future cultivation in the highlands. It is unlikely that such sequence can work in lowlands. 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