Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 13 5 2009 10.5194/hess-13-595-2009 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/595/2009/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/595/2009/hess-13-595-2009.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/13/595/2009/hess-13-595-2009.pdf 595 604 2009-05-12 Estimation of permafrost thawing rates in a sub-arctic catchment using recession flow analysis S. W. Lyon steve.lyon@natgeo.su.se G. Destouni R. Giesler C. Humborg M. Mörth J. Seibert J. Karlsson P. A. Troch Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm University, Sweden Climate Impacts Research Centre, Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Sweden Applied Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Sweden Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm University, Sweden Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, USA Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Switzerland Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as it moves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distribution of these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemical cycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due to climate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, direct observations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales larger than a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible to detect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-term streamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to the sub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flow analysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at an average rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimated thawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawing rates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region. Åkerman, H. J. and Johansson, M.: Thawing permafrost and thicker active layers in sub-arctic Sweden, Permafrost Periglac., 19(3), 279–292, 2008. Åkerman, H. J. and Malmström, B.: Permafrost mounds in the Abisko area, northern Sweden, Geogr. Ann A, 68(3), 155–165, 1986. Beylich, A. A., Kolstrup, E., Thyrsted, T., Linde, N., Pedersen, L. 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