Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 14 8 2010 10.5194/hess-14-1449-2010 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/1449/2010/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/1449/2010/hess-14-1449-2010.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/1449/2010/hess-14-1449-2010.pdf 1449 1464 2010-08-04 The potential for remote sensing and hydrologic modelling to assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of ponds in the Ferlo Region (Senegal) V. Soti vs.nev@ntropic.fr C. Puech D. Lo Seen A. Bertran C. Vignolles B. Mondet N. Dessay A. Tran SAS Nevantropic, 97300 Cayenne, French Guiana CIRAD, UPR AGIRs, 34398, Montpellier, France CIRAD, UMR TETIS, 34093, Montpellier, France CEMAGREF, UMR TETIS, 34093, Montpellier, France CNES, 31401, Toulouse, France IRD, UR 178, 34093, Montpellier, France IRD, UMR LTHE, 38400, Grenoble, France IRD, US ESPACE, 34093, Montpellier, France In the Ferlo Region in Senegal, livestock depend on temporary ponds for water but are exposed to the Rift Valley Fever (RVF), a disease transmitted to herds by mosquitoes which develop in these ponds. Mosquito abundance is related to the emptying and filling phases of the ponds, and in order to study the epidemiology of RVF, pond modelling is required. In the context of a data scarce region, a simple hydrologic model which makes use of remote sensing data was developed to simulate pond water dynamics from daily rainfall. Two sets of ponds were considered: those located in the main stream of the Ferlo Valley whose hydrological dynamics are essentially due to runoff, and the ponds located outside, which are smaller and whose filling mechanisms are mainly due to direct rainfall. Separate calibrations and validations were made for each set of ponds. Calibration was performed from daily field data (rainfall, water level) collected during the 2001 and 2002 rainy seasons and from three different sources of remote sensing data: 1) very high spatial resolution optical satellite images to access pond location and surface area at given dates, 2) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to estimate pond catchment area and 3) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data for rainfall estimates. The model was applied to all ponds of the study area, the results were validated and a sensitivity analysis was performed. Water height simulations using gauge rainfall as input were compared to water level measurements from four ponds and Nash coefficients >0.7 were obtained. Comparison with simulations using TRMM rainfall data gave mixed results, with poor water height simulations for the year 2001 and good estimations for the year 2002. A pond map derived from a Quickbird satellite image was used to assess model accuracy for simulating pond water areas for all the ponds of the study area. The validation showed that modelled water areas were mostly underestimated but significantly correlated, particularly for the larger ponds. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that parameters relative to pond shape and catchment area estimation have less effects on model simulation than parameters relative to soil properties (rainfall threshold causing runoff in dry soils and the coefficient expressing soil moisture decrease with time) or the water loss coefficient. Overall, our results demonstrate the possibility of using a simple hydrologic model with remote sensing data to track pond water heights and water areas in a homogeneous arid area. % vor jede Referenz Ali, A., Lebel, T., and Amani, A.: Rainfall Estimation in the Sahel. Part I: Error Function, J. Appl. Meteorol., 44, 1691–1706, 2005. Anctil, F., Michel, C., Perrin, C., and Andréassian, V.: A soil moisture index as an auxiliary ANN input for stream flow forecasting, J. Hydrol., 286, 155–167, 2004. Annor, F. O., van de Giesen, N., Liebe, J., van de Zaag, P., Tilmant, A., and Odai, S. N.: Delineation of small reservoirs using radar imagery in a semi-arid environment: A case study in the upper east region of Ghana, Phys. Chem. Earth, 34, 309–315, 2009. Balme, M., Galle, S., and Lebel, T.: Analysis of the variability of the onset of the rainy season in the Sahel at hydrological and agronomical scales, based on EPSAT-Niger data, Secheresse, 16, 15–22, 2005. Balme, M., Vischel, T., Lebel, T., Peugeot, C., and Galle, S.: Assessing the water balance in the Sahel: Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff: Part 1: Rainfall variability analysis, J. Hydrol., 331, 336–348, 2006. Barton, I. J. and Bathols, J. M.: Monitoring floods with AVHRR, Remote Sens. Environ., 30, 89–94, 1989. Bengtsson, L. and Malm, J.: Using rainfall-runoff modeling to interpret lake level data, J. Paleolimnol., 18, 235–248, 1997. Campolongo, F. and Braddock, R., The use of graph theory in the sensitivity analysis of the model output: a second order screening method, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 1–12, 1999. D'At de Saint Foulc, J., Gilard, O., and Piaton, H.: Petits barrages en terre au Burkina Faso. Bilan et analyse critique, CIEH, Ouagadougou, 180, 1986. D'Amato, N. and Lebel, T.: On the characteristics of rainfall events in the Sahel, with a view to the analysis of climatic variability, Int. J. Climatol., 18, 955–974, 1998. Desconnets, J. C.: Typologie et caractérisation hydrologique des systèmes endoréiques en milieu sahélien (Niger, degré carré de Niamey), University of Montpellier, 326~pp., 1994. Desconnets, J. C., Taupin, J. D., and Leduc, C.: Hydrology of the HAPEX-Sahel Central Super-Site: surface water drainage and aquifer recharge through the pool systems, J. Hydrol., 188–189, 155–178, 1997. Di Baldassarre, G., Schumann, G., and Bates, P. D.: A technique for the calibration of hydraulic models using uncertain satellite observations of flood extent, J. Hydrol., 367, 276–282, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.01.020, 2009. Dingzhi, P., Lihua, X., Shenglian, G., and Ning, S.: Study of Dongting Lake area variation and its influence on water level using MODIS data, Hydrol. Sci. J., 50, 31–44, 2005. Diop, A. T., Diaw, O. T., Diémé, I., Touré, I., Sy, O., and Diémé, G.: Ponds of the Sylvopastoral Zone of Senegal, Revue Élev. Méd. Vét. Pays trop., 57, 77–85, 2004. Dubreuil, P. L.: Review of Relationships between Geophysical Factors and Hydrological Characteristics in the Tropics, J. Hydrol., 87, 201–222, 1986. FAO: Crue et apports. Manuel pour l'estimation décennal et des apports annuels pour les petits bassins versants non jaugés de l'Afrique sahélienne et tropicale sèche, Bulletin FAO d'irrigation et de drainage, Rome, 1996. Frappart, F., Hiernaux, P., Guichard, F., Mougin, E., Kergoat, L., Arjounin, M., Lavenu, F., Koité, M., Paturel, J.-E., and Lebel, T.: Rainfall regime across the Sahel band in the Gourma region, Mali, J. Hydrol., 375, 128–142, 2009. Gates, D. J. and Diessendorf, M.: On the fluctuations in levels of closed lakes, J. Hydrol., 33, 267–285, 1977. Girard, G.: Les modèles hydrologiques pour l'évaluation de la lame d'eau écoulée en zone sahélienne et leurs contraires, Cahier de l'Orstom, Paris, 189–221, 1975. Haas, E., Combal, B., and Bartholomé, E.: A map of temporary water bodies in Western Africa. GlobWetland: Looking at Wetlands from Space, ESA Publications Division, Frascati, Italy, 2006. Hayashi, M. and Van der Kamp, G.: Simple equations to represent the volume–area–depth relations of shallow wetlands in small topographic depressions, J. Hydrol., 237, 74–85, 2000. Heggen, R. J.: Normalized antecedent precipitation index, J. Hydrol. Eng., 6, 377–381, 2001. Herold, N. D., Haack, B. N., and Solomon, E.: An evaluation of radar texture for land use/cover extraction in varied landscapes, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 5, 113–128, 2004. Horritt, M. S., Mason, D. C., and Luckman, A. J.: Flood boundary delineation from synthetic aperture radar imagery using a statistical active contour model, Int. J. Remote Sens., 22, 2489–2507, 2001. Joannes, H., Parnot, J., Rantrua, F., and Sow, N.: Possibilité d'utiliser la télédetection dan sle domaine de l'eau en Afrique, CIEH Série hydrologie, 141, 1986. Kohler, M. A. and Linsley, R. K.: Predicting runoff from storm rainfall, US Weather Bureau Research Paper, 34, 1951. Lacaux, J. P., Tourre, Y. M., Vignolles, C., Ndione, J. A., and Lafaye, M.: Classification of ponds from high-spatial resolution remote sensing: Application to Rift Valley Fever epidemics in Senegal, Remote Sens. Environ., 106, 66–74, 2007. Lange, J., Leibundgut, C., Greenbaum, N., and Schick, A. P.: A noncalibrated rainfall–runoff model for large, arid catchments, Water Resour. Res., 35, 2161–2172, 1999. Le Houerou, H. N.: Introduction au Projet Ecosystèmes pastoraux sahéliens, FAO, Rome, 42, 1988. Lebel, T., Diedhiou, A., and Laurent, H.: Seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the Sahelian rainfall at hydrological scales, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 8389, doi:10.1029/2001JD001580, 2003. Liebe, J., van de Giesen, N., and Andreini, M.: Estimation of small reservoir storage capacities in a semi-arid environment, Phys. Chem. Earth, 30, 448–454, 2005. Linthicum, K. J., Kaburia, H. F., Davies, F. G., and Lindqvist, K. J.: A blood meal analysis of engorged mosquitoes found in Rift Valley fever epizootics area in Kenya, J Am Mosq Control Assoc, 1, 93–95, 1985. Martin-Rosales, W. and Leduc, C.: Variability of the dynamics of temporary pools in a semiarid endoreic system (southwestern Niger), Hydrology of Mediterranean and Semiarid Regions, 174–178, 2003. McFeeters, S. K.: The use of the normalised difference water index (NDWI) in the delineation of open water features, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17, 1425–1432, 1996. Montanari, M., Hostache, R., Matgen, P., Schumann, G., Pfister, L., and Hoffmann, L.: Calibration and sequential updating of a coupled hydrologic-hydraulic model using remote sensing-derived water stages, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 367–380, doi:10.5194/hess-13-367-2009, 2009. Morris, M.: Factorial sampling plans for preliminary computational experiments, Technometrics, 33, 161–174, 1991. Nash, J. E. and Sutcliffe, J. V.: River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I: A discussion of principles, J. Hydrol., 10, 282–290, 1970. Ndiaye, P. I.: Modélisation de la dynamique de population des moustiques Aedes en zoe sahélienne. ewemple des Aedes vexans arabiensis (Diptera: cilicidae) vecterus de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift en Afrique de l'ouest, PHD, Metz University and Gaston Berger de Saint Louis University, 125~pp., 2006. Nilsson, K. A., Ross, M. A., and Trout, K. E.: Analytic method to derive wetland stage-storage relationships using GIS areas, J. Hydrol. Eng., 13, 278–282, 2008. O'Connor, D. J.: Seasonal and long-term variations of dissolved solids in lakes and reservoirs, J. Environ. Eng., 115, 1213–1234, 1989. Piaton, H. and Puech, C.: Apport de la télédétection pour l'évaluation des ressources en eau d'irrigation pour la mise en valeur des plans d'eau à caractère permanent ou semi-permanent au Niger. Rapport de synthèse, Comité Interafricain d'Etudes Hydrauliques, 150, 1992. Pin-Diop, R., Touré, I., Lancelot, R., Ndiaye, M., and Chavernac, D.: Remote sensing and géographic information systems to predict the density of ruminants, hosts of Rift Valley fever virus in the Sahel, Vet. Ital. Ser., 42, 675–686, 2007. Porphyre, T., Bicout, D. J., and Sabatier, P.: Modelling the abundance of mosquito vectors versus flooding dynamics, Ecol. Model., 183, 173–181, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.06.044 2005. Puech, C.: Plans d'eau sahéliens et imagerie SPOT: inventaire et évaluation des capacités d'exploitation, Colloque international "Eau, environnement et développement", Nouakchott, Mauritanie, 68–83, 1994 Puech, C. and Ousmane, A.: Gestion régionale de plans d'eau sahéliens par télédétection : courbes de fonctionnement, suivi annuel et reconstitution de chroniques hydrologiques, Eau et développement durable : témoignages de la société civile, Paris, 42–44, 1998 Redfern, J. V., Grant, R., Biggs, H., and Getz, W. M.: Surface-water constraints on herbivore foraging in the Kruger National Park, Ecology, 84, 2092–2107, 2003. Saltelli, A., Tarantola, S., Campolongo, F., and Ratto, M., Sensitivity Analysis in Practice: A Guide to Assessing Scientific Models, John Wiley & Sons publishers, 232, 2004. Sandholt, I., Nyborg, L., Fog, B., Lô, M., Bocoum, O., and Rasmussen, K.: Remote sensing techniques for flood monitoring in the Senegal River Valley, Geogr. Tidsskr., 103, 71–81, 2003. Schumann, G., Bates, P. D., Horritt, M. S., Matgen, P., and Pappenberger, F.: Progress in Integration of Remote Sensing-Derived Flood Extent and Stage Data and Hydraulic Models, Rev. Geophys., 47, RG4001, doi:10.1029/2008RG000274, 2009. Soti, V., Chevalier, V., Maura, J., Tran, A., Etter, E., Lelong, C., Sow, D., Ndiaye, M., Sall, B., Thiongane, Y., Lancelot, R., and De Laroque, S.: Landscape characterization of Rift Valley Fever risk areas using very high spatial resolution imagery: case study in the Ferlo area, Senegal, GIS Vet, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2007 Soti, V., Tran, A., Bailly, J.-S., Puech, C., Lo Seen, D., and Bégué, A.: Assessing optical Earth Observation Systems for mapping and monitoring temporary ponds in arid areas, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 11, 344–351, doi:10.1016/j.jag.2009.05.005, 2009. Taupin, J.-D.: Caractérisation de la variabilité spatiale des pluies aux échelles inférieures au kilomètre en région semi-aride (région de Niamey, Niger), Comptes Rendus de l'Académie des Sciences – Series IIA - Earth and Planetary Science, 325, 251–256, 1997. Tourre, Y. M., Lacaux, J. P., Vignolles, C., Ndione, J. A., and Lafaye, M.: Mapping of zones potentially occupied by Aedes vexans and Culex poicilipes mosquitoes, the main vectors of Rift Valley fever in Senegal, Geospatial Health, 3, 69–79, 2008. Verdin, J. P.: Remote sensing of ephemeral water bodies in Western Niger, Int. J. Remote Sens., 17, 733–748, 1996. Vischel, T. and Lebel, T.: Assessing the water balance in the Sahel: Impact of small scale rainfall variability on runoff. Part 2: Idealized modeling of runoff sensitivity, J. Hydrol., 333, 340–355, 2007. Vischel, T., Lebel, T., Massuel, S., and Cappelaere, B.: Conditional simulation schemes of rain fields and their application to rainfall-runoff modeling studies in the Sahel, J. Hydrol., 375, 273–286, 2009. Wheater, H., Sorooshian, S., and Sharma, K. D., Hydrological Modelling in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas, University Press, Cambridge, 195, 2007. Wilson, M. L., Chapman, L. E., Hall, D. B., Dykstra, E. A., Ba, K., Zeller, H. G., Traorelamizana, M., Hervy, J. P., Linthicum, K. J., and Peters, C. J.: Rift-Valley Fever in Rural Northern Senegal - Human Risk-Factors and Potential Vectors, Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 50, 663–675, 1994.