Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 14 2 2010 10.5194/hess-14-291-2010 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/291/2010/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/291/2010/hess-14-291-2010.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/291/2010/hess-14-291-2010.pdf 291 300 2010-02-12 Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century N. Gratiot nicolas.gratiot@ird.fr C. Duvert L. Collet D. Vinson J. Némery C. Sáenz-Romero Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (UMR5564, CNRS, IRD, INPG, UJF), Grenoble, France Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Morelia, Michoacán, Mexico Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Tarímbaro, Michoacán, Mexico The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970's. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically stable over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. 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