Hydrology and Earth System Sciences www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net 1027-5606 1607-7938 14 3 2010 10.5194/hess-14-481-2010 http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/481/2010/ http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/481/2010/hess-14-481-2010.html http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/14/481/2010/hess-14-481-2010.pdf 481 489 2010-03-12 Growth of a high-elevation large inland lake, associated with climate change and permafrost degradation in Tibet J. Liu jsliu@itpcas.ac.cn S. Kang T. Gong A. Lu Nam Co Monitoring and Research Station for Multisphere Interaction, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100085, China Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Tibet, Lhasa 850000, China Key Laboratory of Cryosphere and Environment, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China This study analyzed satellite images and long term climate variables from a high-elevation meteorological station (4730 m) and streamflow records to examine hydrological response of Nam Co Lake (4718 m), the largest lake on the Tibetan Plateau, over the last 50 years. The results show the lake area extended by 51.8 km² (2.7% of the total area) when compared with the area in 1976. This change is associated with an annual precipitation increase of 65 mm (18.6%), annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.9 °C and 2.1 °C respectively, an annual runoff increase of 20% and an annual pan evaporation decrease of about 2%, during the past 20 years. The year of the change point in annual precipitation, air temperature, annual pan evaporation and runoff occurred in 1971, 1983, 1997 and 1997, respectively. The timing of the lake growth corresponds with the abrupt increase in annual precipitation and runoff since the mid-1990s. Burn, D. H. and Elnur, M. A. H.: Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, J. Hydrol., 255, 107–122, 2000. Chen, S., Liu, Y., and Thomas, A.: Climate change on the Tibetan plateau: potential evapotranspiration trends from 1961–2000, Climatic Change, 76, 219–319, 2006. Duguay, C. R., Prowse, T. D., Bonsal, B. R., Brown, R. D., Lacroix, M. P., and Ménard, P.: Recent trends in Canadian lake ice cover, Hydrol. Process., 20, 781–801, doi:10.1002/hyp.6131, 2006. Dorava, J. M. and Milner, A. M.: Role of lake regulation on glacier-fed rivers in enhancing salmon productivity: the Cook Inlet watershed, south-central Alaska, USA, Hydrol. Process., 14, 3149–3159, 2000. Du, J.: Recent change of Air temperature for 40 years in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. Acta Geographica Sinica, 56(6), 682–690, 2001 (in Chinese). Du, J. and Ma, Y.: Climatic trend of precipitation over Tibetan Plateau From 1971 to 2000. Acta Geographica Sinica, 59(3), 375–382, 2004 (in Chinese). Gibson, J. J., Prowse, T. D., and Peters., D. L.: Hydroclimatic controls on water balance and water level variability in Great Slave Lake, Hydrol, Process., 20, 4155–4175, doi:10.1002/hyp.6424, 2006. IPCC Climate Change: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Solomon S., Qin, D., Manning, M., and Chen, Z., 2007. Kane, D. L.: The impact of Arctic hydrologic perturbations on Arctic ecosystems induced by climate change, in: Global Change and Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems, edited by: Oechel, W. C., Springer-Verlag, Ecological Studies, 124, 63–81, 1997. Kendall, M. G.: Rank Correlation Measures, Charles Griffin, London, 1975. Kundzewicz, Z. W. and Robson, A. J.: Change detection in hydrological records–-a review of the methodology, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 49(1), 7–19, 2004. Liu, J. S., Hayakawa, N., Lu, M. J., Dong, S. H., and Yuan, J. Y.: Hydrological and geocryological response of winter streamflow to climate warming in northeast China, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol., 37, 15–24, 2003. Liu, J. S., Hayakawa, N., Lu, M. J., Dong, S. H., and Yuan, J. Y.: Winter streamflow, ground temperature and active-layer thickness in northeast China, Permafrost Periglac., 14(1), 11–18, 2003. Liu, J. S., Wang, S. Y., and Huang, Y. Y.: Effect of climate change on runoff in a basin with mountain permafrost, Northwest China, Permafrost Periglac., 18, 369–377, 2007. Mann, H. B.: Non-parametric tests against trend, Econometrica, 13, 245–259, 1945. Marsh, P. and Neumann, N. N.: Processes controlling the rapid drainage of two ice-rich permafros-dammed lakes in NW Canada, Hydrol. Process., 15, 3433–3446, doi:10.1002/hyp.1035, 2001 Mielko, C. and Woo, M. K.: Snowmelt runoff processes in a headwater lake and its catchment, subarctic Canadian Shield, Hydrol. Process., 20, 987–1000, doi:10.1002/hyp.6117, 2001. Mitchell, J. M., Dzezerdzeeskii, B., and Flohn, H.: Climatic change, WMO Tech. Note, WMO NO, 195, TP-100, Geneva, 1996. Nelson, F. E., Shiklomanov, N. I., and Mueller, G. R.: Estimating active layer thickness over a large region: Kaparuk river basin, Alaska, USA, Arctic Alpine Res., 29, 367–378, 1997. Omar, I. A. A. and Burn, D. H.: Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin, J. Hydrol., 319, 282–294, 2006. Qin, D. H., Chen,Y. Y., and Li, X. Y.: Climate and environmental changes in China, Sci. Press, Beijing, 6–418, 2005. Shi, Y. F., Shen, Y. P., Ding, Y. J., and Zhang, G. W.: An Assessment of the Issue of Climatic shift from the warm-dry into warm-wet in Northwest China, Meteorology Press, Beijing, 3–55, 2003. Singh, N. and Sontakke, N. A.: On Climatic fluctuations and environmental change of the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India, Climatic Change, 52(3), 287–313, 2002. Sneyers, R.: On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observation, Tech. Note 143, WMO No.415, Geneva, 192~pp., 1990. Wang, S. L., Zhao, X. F., Guo, D. X., and Huang, Y. Z.: Response of frozen ground to climatic change in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, J. Glacio. & Geocryo., 18, 157–165, 1996, (in Chinese). Wang, C. H. and Dong, W. J.: Abnormal characteristics of interannual variation in seasonally frozen ground, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, Acta Geographica Sinica, 56(5), 523–531, 2001 (in Chinese). Wang, S. M. and Duo, H. S.: Records of China Lake, Sci. Press, Beijing, 512~pp., 1998 (in Chinese). Yamazaki, T., Kondo, J., and Nishida, A.: Seasonal frost depth of grounds with the bare surface, snow cover and vegetation, Japanese Journal of Snow and Ice, 60, 213–224, 1998 (in Japanese). Yang, D. Q., Kane, D. L., Hinzman, L. D., Zhang, X., Zhang, T. J., and Ye, C.: Siberian Lena River hydrologic regime and recent changes, J. Geophys. Res., 107(D23), 4694, doi:10.1029/2002JD002542, 2002. Zhang, T. J., Osterkamp, T. E., and Stamnes, K.: Effect of climate on the active layer and permafrost on the Northern slope of Alaska, USA, Permafrost Periglac., 8, 45–67, 1997. Zhou, Y. W., Guo, D. X., Qiu, G. Q., and Cheng, G. D.: Geocryology in China, Sci. Press, Beijing, 218~pp., 2000.