Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3123-3133, 2011
http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/3123/2011/
doi:10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011
© Author(s) 2011. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
13 Oct 2011
On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it)
K. Beven1,2,3, P. J. Smith1, and A. Wood1,4 1Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK
2Department of Earth Sciences, Geocentrum, Uppsala University, Uppsala, 75236, Sweden
3Centre for the Analysis of Time Series (CATS), London School of Economics, London, UK
4JBA Consulting, Warrington, UK
Abstract. Disinformation as a result of epistemic error is an issue in hydrological modelling. In particular the way in which the colour in model residuals resulting from epistemic errors should be expected to be non-stationary means that it is difficult to justify the spin that the structure of residuals can be properly represented by statistical likelihood functions. To do so would be to greatly overestimate the information content in a set of calibration data and increase the possibility of both Type I and Type II errors. Some principles of trying to identify periods of disinformative data prior to evaluation of a model structure of interest, are discussed. An example demonstrates the effect on the estimated parameter values of a hydrological model.

Citation: Beven, K., Smith, P. J., and Wood, A.: On the colour and spin of epistemic error (and what we might do about it), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 3123-3133, doi:10.5194/hess-15-3123-2011, 2011.
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