A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes 1Delft University of Technology, Department of Water Management, Delft, the Netherlands
04 Mar 2013
2Delft University of Technology, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft, the Netherlands
Received: 24 September 2012 – Published in Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 11 October 2012 Abstract. In this paper, a database of water-related insurance damage claims related to
private properties and content was analysed. The aim was to investigate whether the probability of occurrence of rainfall-related
damage was associated with the intensity of rainfall. Rainfall data were used for the period of 2003–2009 in the
Netherlands based on a network of 33 automatic rain gauges operated by the
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. Insurance damage data were
aggregated to areas within 10-km range of the rain gauges. Through a logistic
regression model, high claim numbers were linked to maximum rainfall
intensities, with rainfall intensity based on 10-min to 4-h time windows.
Rainfall intensity proved to be a significant damage predictor; however, the
explained variance, approximated by a pseudo-R2 statistic, was at most
34% for property damage and at most 30% for content damage. When
directly comparing predicted and observed values, the model was able to
predict 5–17% more cases correctly compared to a random prediction. No
important differences were found between relations with property and content
damage data. A considerable fraction of the variance is left unexplained,
which emphasizes the need to study damage generating mechanisms and
additional explanatory variables.
Revised: 17 January 2013 – Accepted: 15 February 2013 – Published: 04 March 2013
Citation: Spekkers, M. H., Kok, M., Clemens, F. H. L. R., and ten Veldhuis, J. A. E.: A statistical analysis of insurance damage claims related to rainfall extremes, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 913-922, doi:10.5194/hess-17-913-2013, 2013.