%PDF-1.4 % 5 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (abstract.1) >> endobj 8 0 obj (Abstract) endobj 9 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.1) >> endobj 12 0 obj (Introduction) endobj 13 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> endobj 16 0 obj (The economic model and the limits of the cost--loss ratio) endobj 17 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.3) >> endobj 20 0 obj (Context) endobj 21 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.1) >> endobj 24 0 obj (Floods on the Montmorency watershed) endobj 25 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.2) >> endobj 28 0 obj (Current forecasting and decision-making process) endobj 29 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.2.1) >> endobj 32 0 obj (The HYDROTEL hydrological model) endobj 33 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.2.2) >> endobj 36 0 obj (Flood alerts) endobj 37 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> endobj 40 0 obj (A concurrent flood forecasting framework based on meteorological ensemble forecasts) endobj 41 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.3.1) >> endobj 44 0 obj (Meteorological ensemble forecasts) endobj 45 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.3.2) >> endobj 48 0 obj (Data assimilation and state variable uncertainty) endobj 49 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.4) >> endobj 52 0 obj (Parametrisation of the economic model) endobj 53 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.1) >> endobj 56 0 obj (Level of risk aversion A) endobj 57 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.2) >> endobj 60 0 obj (Damages d, spending s and damage reduction b) endobj 61 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> endobj 64 0 obj (Warning time and dynamic decision-making) endobj 65 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.5) >> endobj 68 0 obj (Performance assessment) endobj 69 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.1) >> endobj 72 0 obj (Forecast quality) endobj 73 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.5.2) >> endobj 76 0 obj (Evaluating the benefits of forecasts) endobj 77 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.6) >> endobj 80 0 obj (Results) endobj 81 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.1) >> endobj 84 0 obj (Assessment hydrological forecasts relative to observations) endobj 85 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> endobj 88 0 obj (Assessment of hydrological forecasts in terms of economic value) endobj 89 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.7) >> endobj 92 0 obj (Discussion) endobj 93 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (section.8) >> endobj 96 0 obj (Conclusions) endobj 97 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (dataavailability.1) >> endobj 100 0 obj (Data availability) endobj 101 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (appendix.A) >> endobj 104 0 obj (Appendix A: How the cost--loss ratio implies risk-neutrality) endobj 105 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (appendix.B) >> endobj 108 0 obj (Appendix B: Properties of the CARA utility function) endobj 109 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (authorcontribution.1) >> endobj 112 0 obj (Author contributions) endobj 113 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (competinginterests.1) >> endobj 116 0 obj (Competing interests) endobj 117 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (acknowledgements.1) >> endobj 120 0 obj (Acknowledgements) endobj 121 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (biblio.1) >> endobj 124 0 obj (References) endobj 125 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D [126 0 R /Fit ] >> endobj 145 0 obj << /Length 3568 /Filter /FlateDecode >> stream xڥZs6B*DAOn^{8Ng DA.|(To )v3wX[@a^_}sXAF~J(UgA$~u*DIU]4*F4Eo_+VT{}GE[i?@Ca7BE^}_|kMv"_?a"~yn"7&HhQ"h?݇0 -Ӻ|T|-u};fu:zs%߯EԶۆg駉MQ!~0nnK(Hd*OW!H>]S(^Ieq"W"3Ʃ.0Ozodq6-Nv(PxIbb-Jw<n=dZuh.ۦMI5e-(T5@-Ԫ3-Pkloɴo؏:,wKcGGj>3ǠɂqG{oj?Gb$~$ O0+M