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Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation)
1The Environment Agency, Tyneside House, Skinnerburn Road, Newcastle Business Park, Newcastle Upon Tyne, NE4 7AR, UK
2Institute of Environmental and Natural Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
3Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YF, UK
4Institute of Hydrology, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
e-mail for corresponding author: david.cameron@environment-agency.gov.uk
Abstract. A continuous simulation methodology, which incorporates the quantification of modelling uncertainties, is used for flood frequency estimation. The methodology utilises the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL within the uncertainty framework of GLUE. Long return period estimates are obtained through the coupling of a stochastic rainfall generator with TOPMODEL. Examples of applications to four gauged UK catchments are provided. A comparison with a traditional statistical approach indicates the suitability of the methodology as an alternative technique for flood frequency estimation. It is suggested that, given an appropriate choice of rainfall-runoff model and stochastic rainstorm generator, the basic methodology can be adapted for use in many other regions of the world.
Keywords: Floods; Frequency; TOPMODEL; Rainfall-runoff modelling
Final Revised Paper (PDF, 1683 KB)
Citation: Cameron, D., Beven, K., Tawn, J., and Naden, P.: Flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation (with likelihood based uncertainty estimation), Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 23-34, 2000. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
