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A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting I: Development of MTB conditional rainfall scenario generator
1Water Resource Systems Research Laboratory, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
2Department of Engineering Mathematics, University of Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
e-mail for corresponding author: P.E.O'Connell@newcastle.ac.uk
Abstract. The need for the development of a method for generating an ensemble of rainfall scenarios, which are conditioned on the observed rainfall, and its place in the HYREX programme is discussed. A review of stochastic models for rainfall, and rainfall forecasting techniques, is followed by a justification for the choice of the Modified Turning Bands (MTB) model in this context. This is a stochastic model of rainfall which is continuous over space and time, and which reproduces features of real rainfall fields at four distinct scales: raincells, cluster potential regions, rainbands and the overall outline of a storm at the synoptic scale. The model can be used to produce synthetic data sets, in the same format as data from a radar. An inversion procedure for inferring a construction of the MTB model which generates a given sequence of radar images is described. This procedure is used to generate an ensemble of future rainfall scenarios which are consistent with a currently observed storm. The combination of deterministic modelling at the large scales and stochastic modelling at smaller scales, within the MTB model, makes the system particularly suitable for short-term forecasts. As the lead time increases, so too does the variability across the set of generated scenarios.
Keywords: MTB model, space-time rainfall field model, rainfall radar, HYREX, real-time flow forecasting
Final Revised Paper (PDF, 12808 KB)
Citation: Mellor, D., Sheffield, J., O'Connell, P. E., and Metcalfe, A. V.: A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting I: Development of MTB conditional rainfall scenario generator, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 603-615, 2000. Bibtex EndNote Reference Manager
