HESS - Latest Articles

Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 2: Orographic precipitation

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 2: Orographic precipitation

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 329-343, 2012

Author(s): M. Ignaccolo and C. De Michele

Here we use the skewness parameter, and the procedure developed in the companion paper (Ignaccolo and De Michele, 2012), to investigate the variability of instantaneous renormalized spectra of rain drop diameter in presence of orographic precipitation. Disdrometer data, available at Bodega Bay and Cazadero, California, are analyzed either as a whole, or as divided (using the bright band echo) in precipitation intervals weakly and strongly influenced by orography, and compared to results obtained at Darwin, Australia. We find that also at Bodega Bay and Cazadero exists a most common distribution of the skewness values of instantaneous spectra of drop diameter, but peaked at values greater than 0.64, found at Darwin. No appreciable differences are found in the skewness distributions of precipitation weakly and strongly influenced by orography. However the renormalized drop diameter spectra of precipitation with strong orographic component have fatter right tail than precipitation with a weaker orographic component. The differences between orographic and non-orographic precipitation are investigated within the parametric space represented by number of drops, mean value and standard deviation of drop diameter. A filter is developed which is able to identify 1 min time intervals during which precipitation is mostly of orographic origin.

Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation

Fri, 03 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Skewness as measure of the invariance of instantaneous renormalized drop diameter distributions – Part 1: Convective vs. stratiform precipitation

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 319-327, 2012

Author(s): M. Ignaccolo and C. De Michele

We investigate the variability of the shape of the renormalized drop diameter instantaneous distribution using of the third order central moment: the skewness. Disdrometer data, collected at Darwin Australia, are considered either as whole or as divided in convective and stratiform precipitation intervals. We show that in all cases the distribution of the skewness is strongly peaked around 0.64. This allows to identify a most common distribution of renormalized drop diameters and two main variations, one with larger and one with smaller skewness. The distributions shapes are independent from the stratiform vs. convective classification.

Effects of climate model radiation, humidity and wind estimates on hydrological simulations

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Effects of climate model radiation, humidity and wind estimates on hydrological simulations

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 305-318, 2012

Author(s): I. Haddeland, J. Heinke, F. Voß, S. Eisner, C. Chen, S. Hagemann, and F. Ludwig

Due to biases in the output of climate models, a bias correction is often needed to make the output suitable for use in hydrological simulations. In most cases only the temperature and precipitation values are bias corrected. However, often there are also biases in other variables such as radiation, humidity and wind speed. In this study we tested to what extent it is also needed to bias correct these variables. Responses to radiation, humidity and wind estimates from two climate models for four large-scale hydrological models are analysed. For the period 1971–2000 these hydrological simulations are compared to simulations using meteorological data based on observations and reanalysis; i.e. the baseline simulation. In both forcing datasets originating from climate models precipitation and temperature are bias corrected to the baseline forcing dataset. Hence, it is only effects of radiation, humidity and wind estimates that are tested here. The direct use of climate model outputs result in substantial different evapotranspiration and runoff estimates, when compared to the baseline simulations. A simple bias correction method is implemented and tested by rerunning the hydrological models using bias corrected radiation, humidity and wind values. The results indicate that bias correction can successfully be used to match the baseline simulations. Finally, historical (1971–2000) and future (2071–2100) model simulations resulting from using bias corrected forcings are compared to the results using non-bias corrected forcings. The relative changes in simulated evapotranspiration and runoff are relatively similar for the bias corrected and non bias corrected hydrological projections, although the absolute evapotranspiration and runoff numbers are often very different. The simulated relative and absolute differences when using bias corrected and non bias corrected climate model radiation, humidity and wind values are, however, smaller than literature reported differences resulting from using bias corrected and non bias corrected climate model precipitation and temperature values.

Estimating geostatistical parameters and spatially-variable hydraulic conductivity within a catchment system using an ensemble smoother

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Estimating geostatistical parameters and spatially-variable hydraulic conductivity within a catchment system using an ensemble smoother

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 287-304, 2012

Author(s): R. T. Bailey and D. Baù

Groundwater flow models are important tools in assessing baseline conditions and investigating management alternatives in groundwater systems. The usefulness of these models, however, is often hindered by insufficient knowledge regarding the magnitude and spatial distribution of the spatially-distributed parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity (K), that govern the response of these models. Proposed parameter estimation methods frequently are demonstrated using simplified aquifer representations, when in reality the groundwater regime in a given watershed is influenced by strongly-coupled surface-subsurface processes. Furthermore, parameter estimation methodologies that rely on a geostatistical structure of K often assume the parameter values of the geostatistical model as known or estimate these values from limited data.

In this study, we investigate the use of a data assimilation algorithm, the Ensemble Smoother, to provide enhanced estimates of K within a catchment system using the fully-coupled, surface-subsurface flow model CATHY. Both water table elevation and streamflow data are assimilated to condition the spatial distribution of K. An iterative procedure using the ES update routine, in which geostatistical parameter values defining the true spatial structure of K are identified, is also presented. In this procedure, parameter values are inferred from the updated ensemble of K fields and used in the subsequent iteration to generate the K ensemble, with the process proceeding until parameter values are converged upon. The parameter estimation scheme is demonstrated via a synthetic three-dimensional tilted v-shaped catchment system incorporating stream flow and variably-saturated subsurface flow, with spatio-temporal variability in forcing terms. Results indicate that the method is successful in providing improved estimates of the K field, and that the iterative scheme can be used to identify the geostatistical parameter values of the aquifer system. In general, water table data have a much greater ability than streamflow data to condition K. Future research includes applying the methodology to an actual regional study site.

Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

Thu, 02 Feb 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Hydrological response of a small catchment burned by experimental fire

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 267-285, 2012

Author(s): C. R. Stoof, R. W. Vervoort, J. Iwema, E. van den Elsen, A. J. D. Ferreira, and C. J. Ritsema

Fire can considerably change hydrological processes, increasing the risk of extreme flooding and erosion events. Although hydrological processes are largely affected by scale, catchment-scale studies on the hydrological impact of fire in Europe are scarce, and nested approaches are rarely used. We performed a catchment-scale experimental fire to improve insight into the drivers of fire impact on hydrology. In north-central Portugal, rainfall, canopy interception, streamflow and soil moisture were monitored in small shrub-covered paired catchments pre- and post-fire. The shrub cover was medium dense to dense (44 to 84%) and pre-fire canopy interception was on average 48.7% of total rainfall. Fire increased streamflow volumes 1.6 times more than predicted, resulting in increased runoff coefficients and changed rainfall-streamflow relationships – although the increase in streamflow per unit rainfall was only significant at the subcatchment-scale. Fire also fastened the response of topsoil moisture to rainfall from 2.7 to 2.1 h (p = 0.058), and caused more rapid drying of topsoils after rain events. Since soil physical changes due to fire were not apparent, we suggest that changes resulting from vegetation removal played an important role in increasing streamflow after fire. Results stress that fire impact on hydrology is largely affected by scale, highlight the hydrological impact of fire on small scales, and emphasize the risk of overestimating fire impact when upscaling plot-scale studies to the catchment-scale. Finally, they increase understanding of the processes contributing to post-fire flooding and erosion events.

A spatial neural fuzzy network for estimating pan evaporation at ungauged sites

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

A spatial neural fuzzy network for estimating pan evaporation at ungauged sites

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 255-266, 2012

Author(s): C.-H. Chung, Y.-M. Chiang, and F.-J. Chang

Evaporation is an essential reference to the management of water resources. In this study, a hybrid model that integrates a spatial neural fuzzy network with the kringing method is developed to estimate pan evaporation at ungauged sites. The adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) can extract the nonlinear relationship of observations, while kriging is an excellent geostatistical interpolator. Three-year daily data collected from nineteen meteorological stations covering the whole of Taiwan are used to train and test the constructed model. The pan evaporation (E_pan) at ungauged sites can be obtained through summing up the outputs of the spatially weighted ANFIS and the residuals adjusted by kriging. Results indicate that the proposed AK model (hybriding ANFIS and kriging) can effectively improve the accuracy of E_pan estimation as compared with that of empirical formula. This hybrid model demonstrates its reliability in estimating the spatial distribution of E_pan and consequently provides precise E_pan estimation by taking geographical features into consideration.

Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 241-254, 2012

Author(s): A. T. Silva, M. M. Portela, and M. Naghettini

An exploratory analysis on the variability of flood occurrence rates in 10 Portuguese watersheds is made, to ascertain if that variability is concurrent with the principle of stationarity. A peaks-over-threshold (POT) sampling technique is applied to 10 long series of mean daily streamflows and to 4 long series of daily rainfall in order to sample the times of occurrence (POT time data) of the peak values of those series. The kernel occurrence rate estimator, coupled with a bootstrap approach, was applied to the POT time data to obtain the time dependent estimated occurrence rate curves, λˆ(t), of floods and extreme rainfall events. The results of the analysis show that the occurrence of those events constitutes an inhomogeneous Poisson process, hence the occurrence rates are nonstationary. An attempt was made to assess whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) casted any influence on the occurrence rate of floods in the study area. Although further research is warranted, it was found that years with a less-than-average occurrence of floods tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the positive phase, and years with a higher occurrence of floods (more than twice the average) tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the negative phase. Although the number of analyzed watersheds and their uneven spatial distribution hinders the generalization of the findings to the country scale, the authors conclude that the mathematical formulation of the flood frequency models relying on stationarity commonly employed in Portugal should be revised in order to account for possible nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of such events.

Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model

Wed, 25 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Assessing water resources in China using PRECIS projections and a VIC model

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 231-240, 2012

Author(s): G. Q. Wang, J. Y. Zhang, J. L. Jin, T. C. Pagano, R. Calow, Z. X. Bao, C. S. Liu, Y. L. Liu, and X. L. Yan

Climate change is now a major environmental and developmental issue, and one that will increase the challenge of sustainable water resources management. In order to assess the implications of climate change for water resources in China, we calibrated a Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with a resolution of 50×50 km² using data from 125 well-gauged catchments. Based on similarities in climate conditions, soil texture and other variables, model parameters were transferred to other areas not covered by the calibrated catchments. Taking runoff in the period 1961–1990 as a baseline, we studied the impact of climate change on runoff under three emissions scenarios, A2, B2 and A1B. Model findings indicate that annual runoff over China as a whole will probably increase by approximately 3–10% by 2050, but with quite uneven spatial and temporal distribution. The prevailing pattern of "north dry and south wet" in China is likely to be exacerbated under global warming.

Köppen versus the computer: comparing Köppen-Geiger and multivariate regression tree climate classifications in terms of climate homogeneity

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Köppen versus the computer: comparing Köppen-Geiger and multivariate regression tree climate classifications in terms of climate homogeneity

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 217-229, 2012

Author(s): A. J. Cannon

A global climate classification is defined using a multivariate regression tree (MRT). The MRT algorithm is automated, hierarchical, and rule-based, thus allowing a system of climate classes to be quickly defined and easily interpreted. Climate variables used in the MRT are restricted to those from the Köppen-Geiger classification system. The result is a set of classes that can be directly compared against those from the traditional system. The two climate classifications are compared at their 5, 13, and 30 class hierarchical levels in terms of climate homogeneity. Results indicate that both perform well in terms of identifying regions of homogeneous temperature variability, although the MRT still generally outperforms the Köppen-Geiger system. In terms of precipitation discrimination, the Köppen-Geiger classification performs poorly relative to the MRT. The data and algorithm implementation used in this study are freely available. Thus, the MRT climate classification offers instructors and students in the geosciences a simple instrument for exploring modern, computer-based climatological methods.

Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

Tue, 24 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Predictability of soil moisture and river flows over France for the spring season

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 201-216, 2012

Author(s): S. Singla, J.-P. Céron, E. Martin, F. Regimbeau, M. Déqué, F. Habets, and J.-P. Vidal

Sources of spring predictability of the hydrological system over France were studied on a seasonal time scale over the 1960–2005 period. Two random sampling experiments were set up in order to test the relative importance of the land surface initial state and the atmospheric forcing. The experiments were based on the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological suite which computed soil moisture and river flow forecasts over a 8-km grid and more than 880 river-gauging stations. Results showed that the predictability of hydrological variables primarily depended on the seasonal atmospheric forcing (mostly temperature and total precipitation) over most plains, whereas it mainly depended on snow cover over high mountains. However, the Seine catchment area was an exception as the skill mainly came from the initial state of its large and complex aquifers. Seasonal meteorological hindcasts with the Météo-France ARPEGE climate model were then used to force the ISBA-MODCOU hydrological model and obtain seasonal hydrological forecasts from 1960 to 2005 for the entire March-April-May period. Scores from this seasonal hydrological forecasting suite could thus be compared with the random atmospheric experiment. Soil moisture and river flow skill scores clearly showed the added value in seasonal meteorological forecasts in the north of France, contrary to the Mediterranean area where values worsened.

Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

Mon, 23 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 189-199, 2012

Author(s): A. Castelletti, F. Pianosi, X. Quach, and R. Soncini-Sessa

In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam), and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply), using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

The blue water footprint of electricity from hydropower

Fri, 20 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The blue water footprint of electricity from hydropower

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 179-187, 2012

Author(s): M. M. Mekonnen and A. Y. Hoekstra

Hydropower accounts for about 16% of the world's electricity supply. It has been debated whether hydroelectric generation is merely an in-stream water user or whether it also consumes water. In this paper we provide scientific support for the argument that hydroelectric generation is in most cases a significant water consumer. The study assesses the blue water footprint of hydroelectricity – the water evaporated from manmade reservoirs to produce electric energy – for 35 selected sites. The aggregated blue water footprint of the selected hydropower plants is 90 Gm³ yr⁻¹, which is equivalent to 10% of the blue water footprint of global crop production in the year 2000. The total blue water footprint of hydroelectric generation in the world must be considerably larger if one considers the fact that this study covers only 8% of the global installed hydroelectric capacity. Hydroelectric generation is thus a significant water consumer. The average water footprint of the selected hydropower plants is 68 m³ GJ⁻¹. Great differences in water footprint among hydropower plants exist, due to differences in climate in the places where the plants are situated, but more importantly as a result of large differences in the area flooded per unit of installed hydroelectric capacity. We recommend that water footprint assessment is added as a component in evaluations of newly proposed hydropower plants as well as in the evaluation of existing hydroelectric dams, so that the consequences of the water footprint of hydroelectric generation on downstream environmental flows and other water users can be evaluated.

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity factor for Switzerland

Mon, 16 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Spatial and temporal variability of rainfall erosivity factor for Switzerland

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 167-177, 2012

Author(s): K. Meusburger, A. Steel, P. Panagos, L. Montanarella, and C. Alewell

Rainfall erosivity, considering rainfall amount and intensity, is an important parameter for soil erosion risk assessment under future land use and climate change. Despite its importance, rainfall erosivity is usually implemented in models with a low spatial and temporal resolution. The purpose of this study is to assess the temporal- and spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in form of the (Revised) Universal Soil Loss Equation R-factor for Switzerland. Time series of 22 yr for rainfall (10 min resolution) and temperature (1 h resolution) data were analysed for 71 automatic gauging stations distributed throughout Switzerland. Regression-kriging was used to interpolate the rainfall erosivity values of single stations and to generate a map for Switzerland. Latitude, longitude, average annual precipitation, biogeographic units (Jura, Midland, etc.), aspect and elevation were used as covariates, of which average annual precipitation, elevation and the biographic unit (Western Central Alps) were significant (p<0.01) predictors. The mean value of long-term rainfall erosivity is 1330 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ with a range of lowest values of 124 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ at an elevated station in Grisons to highest values of 5611 MJ mm ha⁻¹ h⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in Ticino. All stations have highest erosivity values from July to August and lowest values in the winter months. Swiss-wide the month May to October show significantly increasing trends of rainfall erosivity for the observed period (p<0.005). Only in February a significantly decreasing trend of rainfall erosivity is found (p<0.01). The increasing trends of rainfall erosivity in May, September and October when vegetation cover is scarce are likely to enhance soil erosion risk for certain agricultural crops and alpine grasslands in Switzerland.

Hydrogeothermal modelling vs. inorganic chemical composition of thermal waters from the area of Carballiño (NW Spain)

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Hydrogeothermal modelling vs. inorganic chemical composition of thermal waters from the area of Carballiño (NW Spain)

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 157-166, 2012

Author(s): I. Delgado-Outeiriño, P. Araujo-Nespereira, J. A. Cid-Fernández, J. C. Mejuto, E. Martínez-Carballo, and J. Simal-Gándara

Hydrothermic features in Galicia (northwest Spain) have been used since ancient times for therapeutic purposes. A characterization of these thermal waters was carried out in order to understand their behaviour based on inorganic pattern and water-rock interaction mechanisms. In this way 15 thermal water samples were collected in the same hydrographical system. The selected thermal water samples were classified using principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression analysis in two groups according to their chemical composition: group I with the young water samples and group II with the samples with longest water-rock contact time. This classification agreed with the results obtained by the use of geothermometers and hydrogeochemical modelling, where the samples were classified into two categories according their residence time in the reservoir and their water-rock interaction.

Frequency pattern of turbulent flow and sediment entrainment over ripples using image processing

Fri, 13 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Frequency pattern of turbulent flow and sediment entrainment over ripples using image processing

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 147-156, 2012

Author(s): A. Keshavarzi, J. Ball, and H. Nabavi

River channel change and bed scourings are source of major environmental problem for fish and aquatic habitat. The bed form such as ripples and dunes is the result of an interaction between turbulent flow structure and sediment particles at the bed. The structure of turbulent flow over ripples is important to understand initiation of sediment entrainment and its transport. The focus of this study is the measurement and analysis of the dominant bursting events and the flow structure over ripples in the bed of a channel. Two types of ripples with sinusoidal and triangular forms were tested in this study. The velocities of flow over the ripples were measured in three dimensions using an Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter with a sampling rate of 50 Hz. These velocities were measured at different points within the flow depth from the bed and at different longitudinal positions along the flume. A CCD camera was used to capture 1500 sequential images from the bed and to monitor sediment movement at different positions along the bed. Application of image processing technique enabled us to compute the number of entrained and deposited particles over the ripples. From a quadrant decomposition of instantaneous velocity fluctuations close to the bed, it was found that bursting events downstream of the second ripple, in Quadrants 1 and 3, were dominant whereas upstream of the ripple, Quadrants 2 and 4 were dominant. More importantly consideration of these results indicates that the normalized occurrence probabilities of sweep events along the channel are in phase with the bed forms whereas those of ejection events are out of phase with the bed form. Therefore entrainment would be expected to occur upstream and deposition occurs downstream of the ripple. These expectations were confirmed by measurement of entrained and deposited sediment particles from the bed. These above information can be used in practical application for rivers where restoration is required.

Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Evaluation and bias correction of satellite rainfall data for drought monitoring in Indonesia

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 133-146, 2012

Author(s): R. R. E. Vernimmen, A. Hooijer, Mamenun, E. Aldrian, and A. I. J. M. van Dijk

The accuracy of three satellite rainfall products (TMPA 3B42RT, CMORPH and PERSIANN) was investigated through comparison with grid cell average ground station rainfall data in Indonesia, with a focus on their ability to detect patterns of low rainfall that may lead to drought conditions. Each of the three products underestimated rainfall in dry season months. The CMORPH and PERSIANN data differed most from ground station data and were also very different from the TMPA 3B42RT data. It proved possible to improve TMPA 3B42RT estimates by applying a single empirical bias correction equation that was uniform in space and time. For the six regions investigated, this reduced the root mean square error for estimates of dry season rainfall totals by a mean 9% (from 44 to 40 mm) and for annual totals by 14% (from 77 to 66 mm). The resulting errors represent 10% and 3% of mean dry season and annual rainfall, respectively. The accuracy of these bias corrected TMPA 3B42RT data is considered adequate for use in real-time drought monitoring in Indonesia. Compared to drought monitoring with only ground stations, this use of satellite-based rainfall estimates offers important advantages in terms of accuracy, spatial coverage, timeliness and cost efficiency.

Analysis of parameter uncertainty in hydrological and sediment modeling using GLUE method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Analysis of parameter uncertainty in hydrological and sediment modeling using GLUE method: a case study of SWAT model applied to Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 121-132, 2012

Author(s): Z. Y. Shen, L. Chen, and T. Chen

The calibration of hydrologic models is a worldwide challenge due to the uncertainty involved in the large number of parameters. The difficulty even increases in a region with high seasonal variation of precipitation, where the results exhibit high heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. In this study, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method was combined with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the stream flow and sediment simulation in the Daning River Watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA), China. Based on this study, only a few parameters affected the final simulation output significantly. The results showed that sediment simulation presented greater uncertainty than stream flow, and uncertainty was even greater in high precipitation conditions (from May to September) than during the dry season. The main uncertainty sources of stream flow came from the catchment process while a channel process impacts the sediment simulation greatly. It should be noted that identifiable parameters such as CANMX, ALPHA_BNK, SOL_K could be obtained with an optimal parameter range using calibration method. However, equifinality was also observed in hydrologic modeling in TGRA. This study demonstrated that care must be taken when calibrating the SWAT model with non-identifiable parameters because these may lead to equifinality of the parameter values. It was anticipated this study would provide useful information for hydrology modeling related to policy development in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA) and other similar areas.

Improving estimated soil moisture fields through assimilation of AMSR-E soil moisture retrievals with an ensemble Kalman filter and a mass conservation constraint

Thu, 12 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Improving estimated soil moisture fields through assimilation of AMSR-E soil moisture retrievals with an ensemble Kalman filter and a mass conservation constraint

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 105-119, 2012

Author(s): B. Li, D. Toll, X. Zhan, and B. Cosgrove

Model simulated soil moisture fields are often biased due to errors in input parameters and deficiencies in model physics. Satellite derived soil moisture estimates, if retrieved appropriately, represent the spatial mean of near surface soil moisture in a footprint area, and can be used to reduce bias of model estimates (at locations near the surface) through data assimilation techniques. While assimilating the retrievals can reduce bias, it can also destroy the mass balance enforced by the model governing equation because water is removed from or added to the soil by the assimilation algorithm. In addition, studies have shown that assimilation of surface observations can adversely impact soil moisture estimates in the lower soil layers due to imperfect model physics, even though the bias near the surface is decreased. In this study, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a mass conservation updating scheme was developed to assimilate Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals, as they are without any scaling or pre-processing, to improve the estimated soil moisture fields by the Noah land surface model. Assimilation results using the conventional and the mass conservation updating scheme in the Little Washita watershed of Oklahoma showed that, while both updating schemes reduced the bias in the shallow root zone, the mass conservation scheme provided better estimates in the deeper profile. The mass conservation scheme also yielded physically consistent estimates of fluxes and maintained the water budget. Impacts of model physics on the assimilation results are discussed.

The causes of flow regime shifts in the semi-arid Hailiutu River, Northwest China

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

The causes of flow regime shifts in the semi-arid Hailiutu River, Northwest China

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 87-103, 2012

Author(s): Z. Yang, Y. Zhou, J. Wenninger, and S. Uhlenbrook

Identifying the causes (climate vs. human activities) for hydrological variability is a major challenge in hydrology. This paper examines the flow regime shifts, changes in the climatic variables such as precipitation, evaporation, temperature, and crop area in the semi-arid Hailiutu catchment in the middle section of the Yellow River by performing several statistical analyses. The Pettitt test, cumulative sum charts (CUSUM), regime shift index (RSI) method, and harmonic analysis were carried out on annual, monthly, and daily discharges. Four major shifts in the flow regime have been detected in 1968, 1986, 1992 and 2001. Characteristics of the flow regime were analyzed in the five periods: 1957–1967, 1968–1985, 1986–1991, 1992–2000, and 2001–2007. From 1957 to 1967, the flow regime reflects quasi natural conditions of the high variability and larger amplitude of 6 months periodic fluctuations. The river peak flow was reduced by the construction of two reservoirs in the period 1968–1985. In the period of 1986–1991, the river discharge further decreased due to the combined influence of river diversions and increase of groundwater extractions for irrigation. In the fourth period of 1992–2000, the river discharge reached lowest flow and variation in corresponding to a large increase in crop area. The flow regime recovered, but not yet to natural status in the fifth period of 2001–2007. Climatic factors are found not likely responsible for the changes in the flow regime, but the changes in the flow regime are corresponding well to historical land use policy changes.

Modelling water provision as an ecosystem service in a large East African river basin

Tue, 10 Jan 2012 00:00:00 +0100

Modelling water provision as an ecosystem service in a large East African river basin

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 69-86, 2012

Author(s): B. Notter, H. Hurni, U. Wiesmann, and K. C. Abbaspour

Reconciling limited water availability with an increasing demand in a sustainable manner requires detailed knowledge on the benefits people obtain from water resources. A frequently advocated approach to deliver such information is the ecosystem services concept. This study quantifies water provision as an ecosystem service for the 43 000 km² Pangani Basin in Tanzania and Kenya. The starting assumption that an ecosystem service must be valued and accessible by people necessitates the explicit consideration of stakeholders, as well as fine spatial detail in order to determine their access to water. Further requirements include the use of a simulation model to obtain estimates for unmeasured locations and time periods, and uncertainty assessment due to limited data availability and quality. By slightly adapting the hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developing and applying tools for input pre-processing, and using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2 (SUFI-2) in calibration and uncertainty assessment, a watershed model is set up according to these requirements for the Pangani Basin. Indicators for water provision for different uses are derived from model results by combining them with stakeholder requirements and socio-economic datasets such as census or water rights data.

Overall water provision is rather low in the basin, however with large spatial variability. On average, for domestic use, livestock, and industry, 86–105 l per capita and day (95% prediction uncertainty, 95 PPU) are available at a reliability level of 95%. 1.19–1.50 ha (95 PPU) of farmland on which a growing period with sufficient water of 3–6 months is reached at the 75% reliability level – suitable for the production of staple crops – are available per farming household, as well as 0.19–0.51 ha (95 PPU) of farmland with a growing period of ≥6 months, suitable for the cultivation of cash crops.

The indicators presented reflect stakeholder information needs and can be extracted from the model for any physical or political spatial unit in the basin.