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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 14, issue 6 | Copyright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1047-1061, 2010
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-1047-2010
© Author(s) 2010. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  25 Jun 2010

25 Jun 2010

Probabilistic modelling of rainfall induced landslide hazard assessment

S. Kawagoe1, S. Kazama2, and P. R. Sarukkalige3 S. Kawagoe et al.
  • 1Division of Environmental System Management, Faculty of Symbiotic Systems Science, Fukushima University, 1, Kanayagawa, Fukushima, 960-1296, Japan
  • 2Department of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-06, Aramaki aza aoba, Aoba ku, Sendai, 980-8579, Japan
  • 3Department of Civil Engineering, Curtin University of Technology, G.P.O. Box U1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia

Abstract. To evaluate the frequency and distribution of landslides hazards over Japan, this study uses a probabilistic model based on multiple logistic regression analysis. Study particular concerns several important physical parameters such as hydraulic parameters, geographical parameters and the geological parameters which are considered to be influential in the occurrence of landslides. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that hydrological parameter (hydraulic gradient) is the most influential factor in the occurrence of landslides. Therefore, the hydraulic gradient is used as the main hydraulic parameter; dynamic factor which includes the effect of heavy rainfall and their return period. Using the constructed spatial data-sets, a multiple logistic regression model is applied and landslide hazard probability maps are produced showing the spatial-temporal distribution of landslide hazard probability over Japan. To represent the landslide hazard in different temporal scales, extreme precipitation in 5 years, 30 years, and 100 years return periods are used for the evaluation. The results show that the highest landslide hazard probability exists in the mountain ranges on the western side of Japan (Japan Sea side), including the Hida and Kiso, Iide and the Asahi mountainous range, the south side of Chugoku mountainous range, the south side of Kyusu mountainous and the Dewa mountainous range and the Hokuriku region. The developed landslide hazard probability maps in this study will assist authorities, policy makers and decision makers, who are responsible for infrastructural planning and development, as they can identify landslide-susceptible areas and thus decrease landslide damage through proper preparation.

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