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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 16, issue 12 | Copyright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4637-4649, 2012
© Author(s) 2012. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 13 Dec 2012

Research article | 13 Dec 2012

A study of the climate change impacts on fluvial flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

P. D. T. Van1,2, I. Popescu2, A. van Griensven2,5, D. P. Solomatine2,3, N. H. Trung1, and A. Green4 P. D. T. Van et al.
  • 1College of Environment and Natural Resources, Can Tho University, Vietnam
  • 2UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, The Netherlands
  • 3Water Resources Section, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
  • 4Mekong River Comission, Phnom Penn, Cambodia
  • 5Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije University Brussels, Belgium

Abstract. The present paper investigated the extent of the flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta under different projected flood hydrographs, considering the 2000 flood event (the 20-yr return period event, T. V. H. Le et al., 2007) as the basis for computation. The analysis herein was done to demonstrate the particular complexity of the flood dynamics, which was simulated by the 1-D modelling system ISIS used by the Mekong River Commission. The floods of the year 2050 are simulated using a projected sea level rise of +30 cm. The future flood hydrograph changes at Kratie, Cambodia, were also applied for the upstream boundary condition by using an adjusted regional climate model. Two future flood hydrographs were applied at the upstream part of the delta, the first one in a scenario of climate change without considering developments in the Mekong Basin,and the second one in a scenario of climate change taking into account future development of the delta. Analyses were done to identify the areas sensitive to floods, considering the uncertainty of the projection of both the upstream and downstream boundary conditions. In addition, due to the rice-dominated culture in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, possible impacts of floods on the rice-based farming systems were also analysed.

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