Articles | Volume 18, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2789-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
| 
31 Jul 2014
Review article |
| 31 Jul 2014
Climate change impacts on runoff in West Africa: a review
P. Roudier
Climate and Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy
A. Ducharne
Laboratoire METIS, UPMC/CNRS – UMR7619, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
L. Feyen
Climate and Risk Management Unit, Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission (EC), Ispra, Italy
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Peng Huang, Agnès Ducharne, Lucia Rinchiuso, Jan Polcher, Laure Baratgin, Vladislav Bastrikov, and Eric Sauquet
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-445, 2024
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We conducted a high-resolution hydrological simulation from 1959 to 2020 across France. We used a simple trial-and-error calibration to reduce the biases of the simulated water budget compared to observations. The selected simulation satisfactorily reproduces water fluxes, including their spatial contrasts and temporal trends. This work offers a thorough historical overview of water resources and a robust configuration for climate change impact analysis at the nationwide scale of France.
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Pedro Felipe Arboleda-Obando, Agnès Ducharne, Zun Yin, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2141–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2141-2024, 2024
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We show a new irrigation scheme included in the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The new irrigation scheme restrains irrigation due to water shortage, includes water adduction, and represents environmental limits and facilities to access water, due to representing infrastructure in a simple way. Our results show that the new irrigation scheme helps simulate acceptable land surface conditions and fluxes in irrigated areas, even if there are difficulties due to shortcomings and limited information.
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Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7545–7571, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7545-2021, 2021
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Groundwater is increasingly being included in large-scale (continental to global) land surface and hydrologic simulations. However, it is challenging to evaluate these simulations because groundwater is
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hiddenunderground and thus hard to measure. We suggest using multiple complementary strategies to assess the performance of a model (
model evaluation).
Axel P. Belemtougri, Agnès Ducharne, and Harouna Karambiri
Proc. IAHS, 384, 19–23, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-19-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-19-2021, 2021
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Natasha MacBean, Russell L. Scott, Joel A. Biederman, Catherine Ottlé, Nicolas Vuichard, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Kolb, Sabina Dore, Marcy Litvak, and David J. P. Moore
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5203–5230, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5203-2020, 2020
Tom Gleeson, Thorsten Wagener, Petra Döll, Samuel C. Zipper, Charles West, Yoshihide Wada, Richard Taylor, Bridget Scanlon, Rafael Rosolem, Shams Rahman, Nurudeen Oshinlaja, Reed Maxwell, Min-Hui Lo, Hyungjun Kim, Mary Hill, Andreas Hartmann, Graham Fogg, James S. Famiglietti, Agnès Ducharne, Inge de Graaf, Mark Cuthbert, Laura Condon, Etienne Bresciani, and Marc F. P. Bierkens
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-378, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Salma Tafasca, Agnès Ducharne, and Christian Valentin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3753–3774, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-3753-2020, 2020
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In land surface models (LSMs), soil properties are inferred from soil texture. In this study, we use different input global soil texture maps from the literature to investigate the impact of soil texture on the simulated water budget in an LSM. The medium loamy textures give the highest evapotranspiration and lowest total runoff rates. However, the different soil texture maps result in similar water budgets because of their inherent similarities, especially when upscaled at the 0.5° resolution.
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Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Pierre Regnier, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 507–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-507-2020, 2020
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In this second part of the study, we performed simulations of the carbon and water budget of the Lena catchment with the land surface model ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK, enabled to simulate dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production in soils and its transport and fate in high-latitude inland waters. We compare simulations using this model to existing data sources to show that it is capable of reproducing dissolved carbon fluxes of potentially great importance for the future of the global permafrost.
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Simon P. K. Bowring, Ronny Lauerwald, Bertrand Guenet, Dan Zhu, Matthieu Guimberteau, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3503–3521, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3503-2019, 2019
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Few Earth system models represent permafrost soil biogeochemistry, contributing to uncertainty in estimating its response and that of the planet to warming. Because the permafrost contains over double the carbon in the present atmosphere, its fate as it is
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unlockedby warming is globally significant. One way it can be mobilised is into rivers, the sea, or the atmosphere: a vector previously ignored in climate modelling. We present a model scheme for resolving this vector at a global scale.
Chunjing Qiu, Dan Zhu, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Ardalan Tootchi, Agnès Ducharne, and Adam Hastie
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2961–2982, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019, 2019
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We present a model that can simulate the dynamics of peatland area extent and the vertical buildup of peat. The model is validated across a range of northern peatland sites and over the Northern Hemisphere (> 30° N). It is able to reproduce the spatial extent of northern peatlands and peat carbon accumulation over the Holocene.
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Ardalan Tootchi, Anne Jost, and Agnès Ducharne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 189–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-189-2019, 2019
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The role of wetlands at regional and global scales depends on their distribution and extent, which is highly uncertain in the literature. We developed comprehensive wetland maps using satellite imagery products and ground water modeling. These high-resolution maps encompass regularly flooded to non-flooded groundwater wetlands, covering more than 21 % of the land surface area, which is among the highest estimates. Wetlands are particularly concentrated over the tropics and northern cold zones.
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Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
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Trung Nguyen-Quang, Jan Polcher, Agnès Ducharne, Thomas Arsouze, Xudong Zhou, Ana Schneider, and Lluís Fita
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4965–4985, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4965-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4965-2018, 2018
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This study presents a revised river routing scheme for the Organising Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model. The revision is carried out to benefit from the high-resolution topography provided by the Hydrological data and maps based on SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales (HydroSHEDS). We demonstrate that the finer description of the catchments allows for an improvement of the simulated river discharge of ORCHIDEE in an area with complex topography.
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Ardalan Tootchi, Anne Jost, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-48, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-48, 2018
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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There is a massive disagreement between wetland extent estimates in literature (3 to 21 % of the land surface area). Some inundated wetlands could be detected using satellite imagery while non-inundated ones and those below vegetation are not easily detectedable. We mapped all wetlands, using both satellite data and geomorphological information, showing large wetland over boreal and tropical zones plus thousands of small oases in arid areas.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthieu Guimberteau, Dan Zhu, Fabienne Maignan, Ye Huang, Chao Yue, Sarah Dantec-Nédélec, Catherine Ottlé, Albert Jornet-Puig, Ana Bastos, Pierre Laurent, Daniel Goll, Simon Bowring, Jinfeng Chang, Bertrand Guenet, Marwa Tifafi, Shushi Peng, Gerhard Krinner, Agnès Ducharne, Fuxing Wang, Tao Wang, Xuhui Wang, Yilong Wang, Zun Yin, Ronny Lauerwald, Emilie Joetzjer, Chunjing Qiu, Hyungjun Kim, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 121–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018, 2018
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Improved projections of future Arctic and boreal ecosystem transformation require improved land surface models that integrate processes specific to these cold biomes. To this end, this study lays out relevant new parameterizations in the ORCHIDEE-MICT land surface model. These describe the interactions between soil carbon, soil temperature and hydrology, and their resulting feedbacks on water and CO2 fluxes, in addition to a recently developed fire module.
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Ronny Lauerwald, Pierre Regnier, Marta Camino-Serrano, Bertrand Guenet, Matthieu Guimberteau, Agnès Ducharne, Jan Polcher, and Philippe Ciais
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3821–3859, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3821-2017, 2017
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ORCHILEAK is a new branch of the terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE that represents dissolved organic carbon (DOC) production from canopy and soils, DOC and CO2 leaching from soils to streams, DOC decomposition, and CO2 evasion to the atmosphere during its lateral transport in rivers, as well as exchange with the soil carbon and litter stocks on floodplains and in swamps. We parameterized and validated ORCHILEAK for the Amazon basin.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Matthieu Guimberteau, Philippe Ciais, Agnès Ducharne, Juan Pablo Boisier, Ana Paula Dutra Aguiar, Hester Biemans, Hannes De Deurwaerder, David Galbraith, Bart Kruijt, Fanny Langerwisch, German Poveda, Anja Rammig, Daniel Andres Rodriguez, Graciela Tejada, Kirsten Thonicke, Celso Von Randow, Rita C. S. Von Randow, Ke Zhang, and Hans Verbeeck
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1455–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1455-2017, 2017
Jean-Philippe Vidal, Benoît Hingray, Claire Magand, Eric Sauquet, and Agnès Ducharne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3651–3672, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3651-2016, 2016
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Possible transient futures of winter and summer low flows for two snow-influenced catchments in the southern French Alps show a strong decrease signal. It is however largely masked by the year-to-year variability, which should be the main target for defining adaptation strategies. Responses of different hydrological models strongly diverge in the future, suggesting to carefully check the robustness of evapotranspiration and snowpack components under a changing climate.
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Lorenzo Mentaschi, Michalis Vousdoukas, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Ludovica Sartini, Luc Feyen, Giovanni Besio, and Lorenzo Alfieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3527–3547, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3527-2016, 2016
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The climate is subject to variations which must be considered
studying the intensity and frequency of extreme events.
We introduce in this paper a new methodology
for the study of variable extremes, which consists in detecting
the pattern of variability of a time series, and applying these patterns
to the analysis of the extreme events.
This technique comes with advantages with respect to the previous ones
in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and robustness.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
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This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
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Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, Peter Salamon, Jutta Thielen, Alessandra Bianchi, Francesco Dottori, and Peter Burek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016
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This work couples recent advances in large scale flood hazard mapping into a pan-European flood risk model to estimate the impact of river floods in a seamless simulation, covering more than two decades.
Results of this research are an important contribution in the reconstruction of a complete dataset of flood impact data. Also, it has direct implications in the area of flood early warning with regard to the rapid risk assessment of flood impacts.
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W. Greuell, J. C. M. Andersson, C. Donnelly, L. Feyen, D. Gerten, F. Ludwig, G. Pisacane, P. Roudier, and S. Schaphoff
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10289-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-10289-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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The main aims of this paper are the evaluation of five large-scale hydrological models across Europe and the assessment of the suitability of the models for making projections under climate change. While we found large inter-model differences in biases, the skill to simulate interannual variability in discharge did not differ much between the models. Assuming that the skill of a model to simulate interannual variability provides a measure for the model’s ability to make projections under climate
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L. Alfieri, P. Burek, L. Feyen, and G. Forzieri
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015
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This work presents, to our best knowledge, the first pan-European assessment of the future hydro-meteorological hazard based on an ensemble of the new EURO-CORDEX regional climate scenarios.
We propose a novel approach, which shows how the change in the frequency of future floods in Europe is likely to have a larger impact on the overall flood hazard as compared to the change in their magnitude.
A consistent method is proposed to evaluate the agreement of ensemble projections.
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M. Guimberteau, A. Ducharne, P. Ciais, J. P. Boisier, S. Peng, M. De Weirdt, and H. Verbeeck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1115–1136, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1115-2014, 2014
G. Forzieri, L. Feyen, R. Rojas, M. Flörke, F. Wimmer, and A. Bianchi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 85–108, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-85-2014, 2014
B. Jongman, H. Kreibich, H. Apel, J. I. Barredo, P. D. Bates, L. Feyen, A. Gericke, J. Neal, J. C. J. H. Aerts, and P. J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3733–3752, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3733-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Subject: Global hydrology | Techniques and Approaches: Uncertainty analysis
Information content of soil hydrology in a west Amazon watershed as informed by GRACE
Diagnostic evaluation of river discharge into the Arctic Ocean and its impact on oceanic volume transports
The 63-year changes in annual streamflow volumes across Europe with a focus on the Mediterranean basin
Multivariable evaluation of land surface processes in forced and coupled modes reveals new error sources to the simulated water cycle in the IPSL (Institute Pierre Simon Laplace) climate model
Implications of model selection: a comparison of publicly available, conterminous US-extent hydrologic component estimates
Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation
A global-scale evaluation of extreme event uncertainty in the eartH2Observe project
Assessment of precipitation error propagation in multi-model global water resource reanalysis
The potential of global reanalysis datasets in identifying flood events in Southern Africa
Hydrological assessment of atmospheric forcing uncertainty in the Euro-Mediterranean area using a land surface model
Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century
Have precipitation extremes and annual totals been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years?
Sensitivity of future continental United States water deficit projections to general circulation models, the evapotranspiration estimation method, and the greenhouse gas emission scenario
Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use
Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approach
Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: the role of model parameter uncertainty
Sensitivity of simulated global-scale freshwater fluxes and storages to input data, hydrological model structure, human water use and calibration
Benchmark products for land evapotranspiration: LandFlux-EVAL multi-data set synthesis
Disinformative data in large-scale hydrological modelling
The impact of climate mitigation on projections of future drought
Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data
Monitoring and quantifying future climate projections of dryness and wetness extremes: SPI bias
Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain
A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models
Error characterisation of global active and passive microwave soil moisture datasets
Assessment of soil moisture fields from imperfect climate models with uncertain satellite observations
Elias C. Massoud, A. Anthony Bloom, Marcos Longo, John T. Reager, Paul A. Levine, and John R. Worden
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1407–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1407-2022, 2022
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The water balance on river basin scales depends on a number of soil physical processes. Gaining information on these quantities using observations is a key step toward improving the skill of land surface hydrology models. In this study, we use data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA-GRACE) to inform and constrain these hydrologic processes. We show that our model is able to simulate the land hydrologic cycle for a watershed in the Amazon from January 2003 to December 2012.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, Vanessa Seitner, Ervin Zsoter, Hao Zuo, and Leopold Haimberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 279–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, 2022
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We evaluate Arctic river discharge using in situ observations and state-of-the-art reanalyses, inter alia the most recent Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) river discharge reanalysis version 3.1. Furthermore, we combine reanalysis data, in situ observations, ocean reanalyses, and satellite data and use a Lagrangian optimization scheme to close the Arctic's volume budget on annual and seasonal scales, resulting in one reliable and up-to-date estimate of every volume budget term.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Daniele Masseroni, Stefania Camici, Alessio Cislaghi, Giorgio Vacchiano, Christian Massari, and Luca Brocca
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5589–5601, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5589-2021, 2021
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We evaluate 63 years of changes in annual streamflow volume across Europe, using a data set of more than 3000 stations, with a special focus on the Mediterranean basin. The results show decreasing (increasing) volumes in the southern (northern) regions. These trends are strongly consistent with the changes in temperature and precipitation.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hiroki Mizuochi, Agnès Ducharne, Frédérique Cheruy, Josefine Ghattas, Amen Al-Yaari, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Vladislav Bastrikov, Philippe Peylin, Fabienne Maignan, and Nicolas Vuichard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2199–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-2199-2021, 2021
Samuel Saxe, William Farmer, Jessica Driscoll, and Terri S. Hogue
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1529–1568, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1529-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1529-2021, 2021
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We compare simulated values from 47 models estimating surface water over the USA. Results show that model uncertainty is substantial over much of the conterminous USA and especially high in the west. Applying the studied models to a simple water accounting equation shows that model selection can significantly affect research results. This paper concludes that multimodel ensembles help to best represent uncertainty in conclusions and suggest targeted research efforts in arid regions.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, and Yoshihide Wada
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1543–1564, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020, 2020
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We presented a global comparison between observed and simulated trends in a flood index over the 1971–2005 period using the Global Streamflow Indices and Metadata archive and six global hydrological models available through The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. Streamflow simulations over 2006–2099 period robustly project high flood hazard in several regions. These high-flood-risk areas, however, are under-sampled by the current global streamflow databases.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Toby R. Marthews, Eleanor M. Blyth, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 75–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-75-2020, 2020
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Climate change impact modellers can only act on predictions of the occurrence of an extreme event in the Earth system if they know the uncertainty in that prediction and how uncertainty is attributable to different model components. Using eartH2Observe data, we quantify the balance between different sources of uncertainty in global evapotranspiration and runoff, making a crucial contribution to understanding the spatial distribution of water resources allocation deficiencies.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Md Abul Ehsan Bhuiyan, Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Emmanouil N. Anagnostou, Jan Polcher, Clément Albergel, Emanuel Dutra, Gabriel Fink, Alberto Martínez-de la Torre, and Simon Munier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1973–1994, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1973-2019, 2019
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This study investigates the propagation of precipitation uncertainty, and its interaction with hydrologic modeling, in global water resource reanalysis. Analysis is based on ensemble hydrologic simulations for a period of 11 years based on six global hydrologic models and five precipitation datasets. Results show that uncertainties in the model simulations are attributed to both uncertainty in precipitation forcing and the model structure.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Gaby J. Gründemann, Micha Werner, and Ted I. E. Veldkamp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4667–4683, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4667-2018, 2018
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Flooding in vulnerable and data-sparse regions such as the Limpopo basin in Southern Africa is a key concern. Data available to local flood managers are often limited, inconsistent or asymmetrically distributed. We demonstrate that freely available global datasets are well suited to provide essential information. Despite the poor performance of simulated discharges, these datasets hold potential in identifying damaging flood events, particularly for higher-resolution datasets and larger basins.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Emiliano Gelati, Bertrand Decharme, Jean-Christophe Calvet, Marie Minvielle, Jan Polcher, David Fairbairn, and Graham P. Weedon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2091–2115, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2091-2018, 2018
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We compared land surface model simulations forced by several meteorological datasets with observations over the Euro-Mediterranean area, for the 1979–2012 period. Precipitation was the most uncertain forcing variable. The impacts of forcing uncertainty were larger on the mean and standard deviation rather than the timing, shape and inter-annual variability of simulated discharge. Simulated leaf area index and surface soil moisture were relatively insensitive to these uncertainties.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Behzad Asadieh and Nir Y. Krakauer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5863–5874, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017, 2017
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Multi-model analysis of global streamflow extremes for the 20th and 21st centuries under two warming scenarios is performed. About 37 and 43 % of global land areas show potential for increases in flood and drought events. Nearly 10 % of global land areas, holding around 30 % of world’s population, reflect a potentially worsening hazard of flood and drought. A significant increase in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and decrease in subtropical arid areas, is projected.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Sebastian Sippel, Jakob Zscheischler, Martin Heimann, Holger Lange, Miguel D. Mahecha, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike E. L. Otto, and Markus Reichstein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 441–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-441-2017, 2017
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The paper re-investigates the question whether observed precipitation extremes and annual totals have been increasing in the world's dry regions over the last 60 years. Despite recently postulated increasing trends, we demonstrate that large uncertainties prevail due to (1) the choice of dryness definition and (2) statistical data processing. In fact, we find only minor (and only some significant) increases if (1) dryness is based on aridity and (2) statistical artefacts are accounted for.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Seungwoo Chang, Wendy D. Graham, Syewoon Hwang, and Rafael Muñoz-Carpena
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3261, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3245-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3245-2016, 2016
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Projecting water deficit depends on how researchers combine possible future climate scenarios such as general circulation models (GCMs), evapotranspiration estimation method (ET), and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Using global sensitivity analysis, we found the relative contribution of each of these factors to projecting future water deficit and the choice of ET estimation method are as important as the choice of GCM, and greenhouse gas emission scenario is less influential than the others.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Hannes Müller Schmied, Linda Adam, Stephanie Eisner, Gabriel Fink, Martina Flörke, Hyungjun Kim, Taikan Oki, Felix Theodor Portmann, Robert Reinecke, Claudia Riedel, Qi Song, Jing Zhang, and Petra Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2877–2898, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2877-2016, 2016
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The assessment of water balance components of the global land surface by means of hydrological models is affected by large uncertainties, in particular related to meteorological forcing. We analyze the effect of five state-of-the-art forcings on water balance components at different spatial and temporal scales modeled with WaterGAP. Furthermore, the dominant effect (precipitation/human alteration) for long-term changes in river discharge is assessed.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, and Antje Weisheimer
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2737–2743, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016, 2016
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Soil moisture memory is a key aspect of seasonal climate predictions, through feedback between the land surface and the atmosphere. Estimates have been made of the length of soil moisture memory; however, we show here how estimates of memory show large variation with uncertain model parameters. Explicit representation of model uncertainty may then improve the realism of simulations and seasonal climate forecasts.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
N. W. Chaney, J. D. Herman, P. M. Reed, and E. F. Wood
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3239–3251, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015, 2015
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Land surface modeling is playing an increasing role in global monitoring and prediction of extreme hydrologic events. However, uncertainties in parameter identifiability limit the reliability of model predictions. This study makes use of petascale computing to perform a comprehensive evaluation of land surface modeling for global flood and drought monitoring and suggests paths forward to overcome the challenges posed by parameter uncertainty.
This article is included in the Encyclopedia of Geosciences
H. Müller Schmied, S. Eisner, D. Franz, M. Wattenbach, F. T. Portmann, M. Flörke, and P. Döll
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3511–3538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3511-2014, 2014
B. Mueller, M. Hirschi, C. Jimenez, P. Ciais, P. A. Dirmeyer, A. J. Dolman, J. B. Fisher, M. Jung, F. Ludwig, F. Maignan, D. G. Miralles, M. F. McCabe, M. Reichstein, J. Sheffield, K. Wang, E. F. Wood, Y. Zhang, and S. I. Seneviratne
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3707–3720, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3707-2013, 2013
A. Kauffeldt, S. Halldin, A. Rodhe, C.-Y. Xu, and I. K. Westerberg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2845–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2845-2013, 2013
I. H. Taylor, E. Burke, L. McColl, P. D. Falloon, G. R. Harris, and D. McNeall
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 2339–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-2339-2013, 2013
H. Xie, L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. R. Scanlon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 3083–3099, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3083-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3083-2012, 2012
F. Sienz, O. Bothe, and K. Fraedrich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2143–2157, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2143-2012, 2012
D. González-Zeas, L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, and A. Sordo-Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1709–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1709-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-1709-2012, 2012
S. N. Gosling, R. G. Taylor, N. W. Arnell, and M. C. Todd
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 279–294, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-279-2011, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-279-2011, 2011
W. A. Dorigo, K. Scipal, R. M. Parinussa, Y. Y. Liu, W. Wagner, R. A. M. de Jeu, and V. Naeimi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2605–2616, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2605-2010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-14-2605-2010, 2010
G. Schumann, D. J. Lunt, P. J. Valdes, R. A. M. de Jeu, K. Scipal, and P. D. Bates
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1545–1553, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1545-2009, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-13-1545-2009, 2009
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