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Volume 18, issue 12 | Copyright

Special issue: Drought forecasting and warning

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4965-4978, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4965-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 10 Dec 2014

Research article | 10 Dec 2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

C. Funk et al.
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Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Jul 2014) by Micha Werner
AR by C. Funk on behalf of the Authors (05 Sep 2014)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (29 Sep 2014) by Micha Werner
RR by Benjamin F. Zaitchik (20 Oct 2014)
ED: Publish as is (05 Nov 2014) by Micha Werner
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Short summary
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways....
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