Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 4.256 IF 4.256
  • IF 5-year value: 4.819 IF 5-year
  • CiteScore value: 4.10 CiteScore
  • SNIP value: 1.412 SNIP 1.412
  • SJR value: 2.023 SJR 2.023
  • IPP value: 3.97 IPP 3.97
  • h5-index value: 58 h5-index 58
  • Scimago H <br class='hide-on-tablet hide-on-mobile'>index value: 99 Scimago H
    index 99
Volume 18, issue 12 | Copyright

Special issue: Drought forecasting and warning

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4965-4978, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 10 Dec 2014

Research article | 10 Dec 2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

C. Funk et al.
Related authors
Projections of leaf area index in earth system models
Natalie Mahowald, Fiona Lo, Yun Zheng, Laura Harrison, Chris Funk, Danica Lombardozzi, and Christine Goodale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 211-229,,, 2016
A seasonal agricultural drought forecast system for food-insecure regions of East Africa
S. Shukla, A. McNally, G. Husak, and C. Funk
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3907-3921,,, 2014
Estimating Sahelian and East African soil moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
A. McNally, C. Funk, G. J. Husak, J. Michaelsen, B. Cappelaere, J. Demarty, T. Pellarin, T. P. Young, K. K. Caylor, C. Riginos, and K. E. Veblen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,,, 2013
Revised manuscript not accepted
Related subject area
Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Evaluating and improving modeled turbulent heat fluxes across the North American Great Lakes
Umarporn Charusombat, Ayumi Fujisaki-Manome, Andrew D. Gronewold, Brent M. Lofgren, Eric J. Anderson, Peter D. Blanken, Christopher Spence, John D. Lenters, Chuliang Xiao, Lindsay E. Fitzpatrick, and Gregory Cutrell
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5559-5578,,, 2018
Analysis of the streamflow extremes and long-term water balance in the Liguria region of Italy using a cloud-permitting grid spacing reanalysis dataset
Francesco Silvestro, Antonio Parodi, Lorenzo Campo, and Luca Ferraris
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5403-5426,,, 2018
Precipitation pattern in the Western Himalayas revealed by four datasets
Hong Li, Jan Erik Haugen, and Chong-Yu Xu
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5097-5110,,, 2018
Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil: verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products
José Miguel Delgado, Sebastian Voss, Gerd Bürger, Klaus Vormoor, Aline Murawski, José Marcelo Rodrigues Pereira, Eduardo Martins, Francisco Vasconcelos Júnior, and Till Francke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5041-5056,,, 2018
Cross-validation of bias-corrected climate simulations is misleading
Douglas Maraun and Martin Widmann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4867-4873,,, 2018
Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., and Arkin, P.: The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, 2003.
Cook, K. H. and Vizy, E. K.: Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons, J. Climate, 26, 5931–5948, 2013.
England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A.: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222–227, 2014.
Folkins, I. and Braun, C.: Tropical rainfall and boundary layer moist entropy, J. Climate, 16, 1807–1820, 2003.
Funk, C.: Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in Eastern Africa, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 7, 1049–1051, 2012.
Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Short summary
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways....