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Volume 18, issue 12 | Copyright

Special issue: Drought forecasting and warning

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4965-4978, 2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 10 Dec 2014

Research article | 10 Dec 2014

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

C. Funk et al.
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Revised manuscript not accepted
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Cited articles
Adler, R. F., Huffman, G. J., Chang, A., Ferraro, R., Xie, P., Janowiak, J., Rudolf, B., Schneider, U., Curtis, S., Bolvin, D., Gruber, A., Susskind, J., and Arkin, P.: The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979–present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147–1167, 2003.
Cook, K. H. and Vizy, E. K.: Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons, J. Climate, 26, 5931–5948, 2013.
England, M. H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G. A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A. S., McPhaden, M. J., Purich, A., and Santoso, A.: Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222–227, 2014.
Folkins, I. and Braun, C.: Tropical rainfall and boundary layer moist entropy, J. Climate, 16, 1807–1820, 2003.
Funk, C.: Exceptional warming in the Western Pacific-Indian Ocean Warm Pool has contributed to more frequent droughts in Eastern Africa, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 7, 1049–1051, 2012.
Publications Copernicus
Special issue
Short summary
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways. At seasonal and decadal timescales, warm equatorial western Pacific SSTs and cool eastern Pacific SSTs reduce precipitation in East Africa. The gradient between these regions can be used to make reasonably accurate forecasts in one of the world's most food-insecure regions. Recent warming in the western Pacific and stationary eastern Pacific conditions have produced large precipitation declines.
Western Pacific SST gradients influence eastern East African precipitation in predictable ways....