Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1615-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 19, issue 4

Research article

|

08 Apr 2015

Research article |

| 08 Apr 2015

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

M. C. Peel, R. Srikanthan, T. A. McMahon, and D. J. Karoly

Download

Final revised paper (published on 08 Apr 2015)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 05 May 2014)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC C1587: 'Review of article hess-2014-115', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 May 2014
RC C2238: ''Uncertainty in runoff ... Part 2 ...'', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Jul 2014
AC C3256: 'Authors response to reviewers comments', Murray Peel, 21 Aug 2014

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (05 Oct 2014) by Asaad Shamseldin

AR by Murray Peel on behalf of the Authors (08 Dec 2014) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (17 Mar 2015) by Asaad Shamseldin

Short summary

We present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty using non-stationary stochastic replicates of monthly precipitation and temperature projections and investigate the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected runoff and reservoir yield. Amplification of within-GCM variability from precipitation to runoff to reservoir yield suggests climate change impact assessments ignoring within-GCM uncertainty would provide water resources managers with an unjustified sense of certainty