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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 19, issue 6
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2737–2754, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2737–2754, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2737-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 15 Jun 2015

Research article | 15 Jun 2015

Large-basin hydrological response to climate model outputs: uncertainty caused by internal atmospheric variability

A. Gelfan et al.
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Cited articles  
Anagnostopoulos, G. G., Koutsoyiannis, D., Christofides, A., Efstratiadis, A., and Mamassis, N.: A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrolog. Sci. J., 55, 1094–1110, 2010.
Bates, B. C., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Wu, S., and Palutikof, J. P. (Eds.): Climate Change and Water, Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 2008.
Blöschl, G. and Sivapalan, M.: Scale issues in hydrological modelling: a review, Hydrol. Process., 9, 251–290, 1995.
Braun, M., Caya, D., Frigon, A., and Slivitzky, M.: Internal variability of Canadian RCM's hydrological variables at the basin scale in Quebec and Labrador, J. Hydrometeorol., 13, 443–462, 2012.
Chiew, F. H. S., Teng, J., Vaze, J., Post, D. A., Perraud, J. M., and Kirono, D. G. C., and Viney, N. R.: Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia: Method, results, and implications of the modelling method, Water Resour. Res., 45, W10414, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007338, 2009.
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Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric variability (IAV) on the hydrological response is analyzed. On the basis of ensemble experiments with GCM and hydrological models, we found, e.g., that averaging over ensemble members filters the stochastic term related to IAV, and that a considerable portion of the simulated trend in annual Lena R. runoff can be explained by the externally forced signal (global SST and SIC changes in our experiments).
Our paper is one of very few studies where the influence of stochastic internal atmospheric...
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