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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 19, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 275–291, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-275-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 16 Jan 2015

Research article | 16 Jan 2015

The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models

M. C. Demirel et al.
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Archer, D. R. and Fowler, H. J.: Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan, J. Hydrol., 361, 10–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.017, 2008.
ATV-DVWK: Verdunstung in Bezug zu Landnutzung, Bewuchs und Boden, Merkblatt ATV-DVWK-M 504, Hennef, 2002.
Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Marsh, T. J., Brookshaw, A., and Jenkins, A.: Developing a large-scale water-balance approach to seasonal forecasting: application to the 2012 drought in Britain, Hydrol. Process., 27, 3003–3012, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9863, 2013.
Bierkens, M. F. P. and van Beek, L. P. H.: Seasonal Predictability of European Discharge: NAO and Hydrological Response Time, J. Hydrometeorol., 10, 953–968, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009jhm1034.1, 2009.
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This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET forecasts and initial model conditions.
This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using three models. From the...
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