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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 20, issue 5
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1785–1808, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1785–1808, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-1785-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 10 May 2016

Research article | 10 May 2016

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

Lamprini V. Papadimitriou et al.
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Cited articles  
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012.
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flow regimes at the global scale, J. Hydrol., 486, 351–364, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.02.010, 2013.
Arnell, N. W. and Lloyd-Hughes, B.: The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios, Climatc Change, 122, 127–140, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4, 2014.
Arnell, N. W., Lowe, J. A., Brown, S., Gosling, S. N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Nicholls, R. J., Osborn, T. J., Osborne, T. M., Rose, G. A., Smith, P., and Warren, R. F.: A global assessment of the effects of climate policy on the impacts of climate change, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 512–519, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1793, 2013.
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A set of the new Euro-CORDEX projections is used to examine the impact of high-end scenarios on water availability and stress at a pan-European scale. Drought climatology is investigated for five major European basins along with the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C warming. The effect of bias correction is also examined. The selection of the observational data set used for bias adjustment has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude as the selection of the RCM.
A set of the new Euro-CORDEX projections is used to examine the impact of high-end scenarios on...
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