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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 20, issue 8
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Effective Science Communication and Education in Hydrology...

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3109–3128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 02 Aug 2016

Research article | 02 Aug 2016

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Louise Arnal et al.
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Anaman, K. A., Lellyett, S. C., Drake, L., Leigh, R. J., Henderson-Sellers, A., Noar, P. F., Sullivan, P. J., and Thampapillai, D. J.: Benefits of meteorological services: evidence from recent research in Australia, Meteorol. Appl., 5, 103–115, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482798000668, 1998.
Bauer, P., Thorpe, A., and Brunet, G.: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction, Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956, 2015.
Boucher, M. A., Tremblay, D., Delorme, L., Perreault, L., and Anctil, F.: Hydro-economic assessment of hydrological forecasting systems, J. Hydrol., 416-417, 133–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.042, 2012.
Breidert, C., Hahsler, M., and Reutterer, T.: A review of methods for measuring willingness-to-pay, Innovative Marketing, 2, 8–32, 2006.
Buizza, R.: The value of probabilistic prediction, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 9, 36–42, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.170, 2008.
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Short summary
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added value and a challenge for users. This paper presents a game on flood protection, "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?", which investigated how users perceive the value of forecasts and are willing to pay for them when making decisions. It shows that users are mainly influenced by the perceived quality of the forecasts, their need for the information and their degree of risk tolerance.
Forecasts are produced as probabilities of occurrence of specific events, which is both an added...
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