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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 20, issue 10
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4117–4128, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4117-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 10 Oct 2016

Research article | 10 Oct 2016

Optimising seasonal streamflow forecast lead time for operational decision making in Australia

Andrew Schepen et al.
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Ashok, K., Behera, S. K., Rao, S. A., Weng, H., and Yamagata, T.: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 112, C11007, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003798, 2007.
Chiew, F. H. and Siriwardena, L. W.: Probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting methods, 29th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium: Water Capital, 20–23 February 2005, Rydges Lakeside, Canberra, 208 pp., 2005.
Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F., and Raftery, A. E.: Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness, J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B, 69, 243–268, 2007.
Huang, B., Stone, P., Sokolov, A., and Kamenkovich, I.: Extended reconstructed Sea surface temperature Version 4 (ERSSTv4). Part I: upgrades and intercomparisons, J. Climate, 28, 911–930, 2015.
Kirono, D. G., Chiew, F. H., and Kent, D. M.: Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia, Hydrol. Process., 24, 1237–1247, 2010.
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Short summary
Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two weeks' delay. Timelier forecast release will enhance forecast value and enable sub-seasonal forecasting. The bureau's forecasting approach is modified to allow timelier forecast release, and changes in reliability and skill are quantified. The results are combined with insights into the forecast production process to recommend a more flexible forecasting system to better meet the needs of users.
Australian seasonal streamflow forecasts are issued by the Bureau of Meteorology with up to two...
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