Can local climate variability be explained by weather patterns? A multi-station evaluation for the Rhine basin

Murawski, Aline; Bürger, Gerd; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4283-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 20, issue 10

Research article

|

21 Oct 2016

Research article |

| 21 Oct 2016

Can local climate variability be explained by weather patterns? A multi-station evaluation for the Rhine basin

Aline Murawski, Gerd Bürger, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz

Data sets

CMIP5 data PCMDI http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/

ERA20C data ECMWF http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/

Short summary

To understand past flood changes in the Rhine catchment and the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme flows, an attribution study relying on a proper GCM (general circulation model) downscaling is needed. A downscaling based on conditioning a stochastic weather generator on weather patterns is a promising approach. Here the link between patterns and local climate is tested, and the skill of GCMs in reproducing these patterns is evaluated.