Articles | Volume 20, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
Research article
 | 
17 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 17 Nov 2016

A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to central and south Asia

Lars Gerlitz, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Heiko Apel, Abror Gafurov, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, and Bruno Merz

Related authors

Climate influences on flood probabilities across Europe
Eva Steirou, Lars Gerlitz, Heiko Apel, Xun Sun, and Bruno Merz
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1305–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1305-2019, 2019
Short summary
Statistical forecast of seasonal discharge in Central Asia using observational records: development of a generic linear modelling tool for operational water resource management
Heiko Apel, Zharkinay Abdykerimova, Marina Agalhanova, Azamat Baimaganbetov, Nadejda Gavrilenko, Lars Gerlitz, Olga Kalashnikova, Katy Unger-Shayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Abror Gafurov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2225–2254, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2225-2018, 2018
Short summary
Quantifying the added value of convection-permitting climate simulations in complex terrain: a systematic evaluation of WRF over the Himalayas
Ramchandra Karki, Shabeh ul Hasson, Lars Gerlitz, Udo Schickhoff, Thomas Scholten, and Jürgen Böhner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 507–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-507-2017,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-507-2017, 2017
Short summary
System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA) v. 2.1.4
O. Conrad, B. Bechtel, M. Bock, H. Dietrich, E. Fischer, L. Gerlitz, J. Wehberg, V. Wichmann, and J. Böhner
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1991–2007, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1991-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1991-2015, 2015
Short summary
Do Himalayan treelines respond to recent climate change? An evaluation of sensitivity indicators
U. Schickhoff, M. Bobrowski, J. Böhner, B. Bürzle, R. P. Chaudhary, L. Gerlitz, H. Heyken, J. Lange, M. Müller, T. Scholten, N. Schwab, and R. Wedegärtner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 245–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-245-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-245-2015, 2015
Short summary

Related subject area

Subject: Hydrometeorology | Techniques and Approaches: Modelling approaches
Flood risk assessment for Indian sub-continental river basins
Urmin Vegad, Yadu Pokhrel, and Vimal Mishra
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1107–1126, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1107-2024, 2024
Short summary
Key ingredients in regional climate modelling for improving the representation of typhoon tracks and intensities
Qi Sun, Patrick Olschewski, Jianhui Wei, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 761–780, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-761-2024, 2024
Short summary
Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels
Simon Parry, Jonathan D. Mackay, Thomas Chitson, Jamie Hannaford, Eugene Magee, Maliko Tanguy, Victoria A. Bell, Katie Facer-Childs, Alison Kay, Rosanna Lane, Robert J. Moore, Stephen Turner, and John Wallbank
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 417–440, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-417-2024, 2024
Short summary
Predicting extreme sub-hourly precipitation intensification based on temperature shifts
Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Antonio Canale, and Nadav Peleg
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 375–389, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hydroclimatic processes as the primary drivers of the Early Khvalynian transgression of the Caspian Sea: new developments
Alexander Gelfan, Andrey Panin, Andrey Kalugin, Polina Morozova, Vladimir Semenov, Alexey Sidorchuk, Vadim Ukraintsev, and Konstantin Ushakov
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 241–259, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-241-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Ashok, K., Guan, Z., and Yamagata, T.: Impact of the Indian Ocean dipole on the relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4499–4502, https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013294, 2001.
Barlow, M., Cullen, H., and Lyon, B.: Drought in Central and Southwest Asia: La Niña, the Warm Pool, and Indian Ocean Precipitation, J. Climate, 15, 697–700, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0697:DICASA>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Barlow, M., Zaitchik, B., Paz, S., Black, E., Evans, J., and Hoell, A.: A Review of Drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, J. Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00692.1, 2015.
Barlow, M. A. and Tippett, M. K.: Variability and Predictability of Central Asia River Flows: Antecedent Winter Precipitation and Large-Scale Teleconnections, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 1334–1349, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JHM976.1, 2008.
Bastos, A., Janssens, I. A., Gouveia, C. M., Trigo, R. M., Ciais, P., Chevallier, F., Peñuelas, J., Rödenbeck, C., Piao, S., Friedlingstein, P., and Running, S. W.: European land CO2 sink influenced by NAO and East-Atlantic Pattern coupling, Nat. Commun., 7, 10315, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10315, 2016.
Download
Short summary
Most statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast models utilize a small set of well-known climate indices as potential predictor variables. However, for many target regions, these indices do not lead to sufficient results and customized predictors are required for an accurate prediction. This study presents a statistically based routine, which automatically identifies suitable predictors from globally gridded SST and climate variables by means of an extensive data mining procedure.