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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 21, issue 7
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3687–3700, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3687–3700, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 20 Jul 2017

Research article | 20 Jul 2017

Real-time updating of the flood frequency distribution through data assimilation

Cristina Aguilar et al.

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Cited articles

Aguilar, C., Montanari, A., and Polo, M. J.: Long term prediction of flood occurrence, Proc. IAHS, 373, 189–192,, 2016.
ARPAE (Emilia Romagna, Hydro-meteorological Office): discharge time series available at: (last access: July 2017), 2012.
Baratti, E., Montanari, A., Castellarin, A., Salinas, J. L., Viglione, A., and Bezzi, A.: Estimating the flood frequency distribution at seasonal and annual time scales, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4651–4660,, 2012.
Bayliss, A. C. and Jones, R. C.: Peaks-over-threshold flood database: summary statistics and seasonality, Crowmarsh Gif- ford, Rep. 121, Institute of Hydrology, Wallingford, 61 pp., 1993.
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term perturbations (higher-than-usual moisture), we propose a technique for updating a season in advance the flood frequency distribution. Its application in the Po and Danube rivers helped to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of floods and thus constitutes a promising tool for real-time management of flood risk mitigation. This study is the result of the stay of the first author at the University of Bologna.
Assuming that floods are driven by both short- (meteorological forcing) and long-term...