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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 21, issue 9
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4517-4524, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4517-4524, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4517-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 11 Sep 2017

Research article | 11 Sep 2017

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

Erin Coughlan de Perez et al.
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Cited articles  
Alexander, L., Yang, H., and Perkins, S.: ClimPACT: Indices and software, available at: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t (last access: 24 January 2017), 2013.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.
Anderson, B. T., Gianotti, D., and Salvucci, G. D.: Characterizing the Potential Predictability of Seasonal, Station-Based Heavy Precipitation Accumulations and Extreme Dry Spell Durations*, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0111.1, 2015.
Anon: Kenya: Slum Residents in Nyeri Refuse to Relocate Ahead of El Nino Rains, The Star, Kenya, 6 October 2015.
Balsamo, G., Albergel, C., Beljaars, A., Boussetta, S., Brun, E., Cloke, H., Dee, D., Dutra, E., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Pappenberger, F., de Rosnay, P., Stockdale, T., and Vitart, F.: ERA-Interim/Land: a global land surface reanalysis data set, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 389–407, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-389-2015, 2015.
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Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance. However, current seasonal forecasts give information on rainfall instead of flooding. Here, we find that the number of extreme events, rather than total rainfall, is most related to flooding in different regions of Africa. We recommend several forecast adjustments and research opportunities that would improve flood information at the seasonal timescale in different regions.
Disaster managers would like to use seasonal forecasts to anticipate flooding months in advance....
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