Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
15 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Sep 2017

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (further review by Editor) (07 Jul 2017) by Andy Wood
AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (01 Aug 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (14 Aug 2017) by Andy Wood
AR by Victoria Bell on behalf of the Authors (15 Aug 2017)  Author's response    Manuscript
Download
Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.