Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017
Research article
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15 Sep 2017
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Sep 2017

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

Victoria A. Bell, Helen N. Davies, Alison L. Kay, Anca Brookshaw, and Adam A. Scaife

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Short summary
The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence.