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Volume 21, issue 11 | Copyright
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5459-5476, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5459-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 07 Nov 2017

Research article | 07 Nov 2017

Impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on the numerical simulation of a flash flood event during the HyMeX campaign

Ida Maiello1,2, Sabrina Gentile3,1, Rossella Ferretti2, Luca Baldini4, Nicoletta Roberto4, Errico Picciotti2,5, Pier Paolo Alberoni6, and Frank Silvio Marzano1,2 Ida Maiello et al.
  • 1Department of Information Engineering, Electronics and Telecommunications, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy
  • 2CETEMPS, Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy
  • 3Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, CNR IMAA, Potenza, Italy
  • 4Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, CNR ISAC, Rome, Italy
  • 5Himet s.r.l., L'Aquila, Italy
  • 6Arpae Emilia Romagna, Servizio Idro-Meteo-Clima, Bologna, Italy

Abstract. An analysis to evaluate the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data with a three-dimensional variational (3-D-Var) assimilation system on a heavy precipitation event is presented. The main goal is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and a decision-support system for environmental civil protection services and demonstrate it in the central Italian regions, distinguishing which type of observations, conventional and not (or a combination of them), is more effective in improving the accuracy of the forecasted rainfall. In that respect, during the first special observation period (SOP1) of HyMeX (Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) campaign several intensive observing periods (IOPs) were launched and nine of which occurred in Italy. Among them, IOP4 is chosen for this study because of its low predictability regarding the exact location and amount of precipitation. This event hit central Italy on 14 September 2012 producing heavy precipitation and causing several cases of damage to buildings, infrastructure, and roads. Reflectivity data taken from three C-band Doppler radars running operationally during the event are assimilated using the 3-D-Var technique to improve high-resolution initial conditions. In order to evaluate the impact of the assimilation procedure at different horizontal resolutions and to assess the impact of assimilating reflectivity data from multiple radars, several experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are performed. Finally, traditional verification scores such as accuracy, equitable threat score, false alarm ratio, and frequency bias – interpreted by analysing their uncertainty through bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) – are used to objectively compare the experiments, using rain gauge data as a benchmark.

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In this paper the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on a flash flood event occurred during SOP1 of the HyMeX campaign has been evaluated: the aim is to build a regionally tuned numerical prediction model and decision-support system for environmental civil protection services within the central Italian regions. The results are encouraging, but a significant number of flash flood cases and a deeper analysis of the meteorology of the region are necessary.
In this paper the impact of multiple radar reflectivity data assimilation on a flash flood event...
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