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Volume 21, issue 11 | Copyright

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 5747-5762, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5747-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 22 Nov 2017

Research article | 22 Nov 2017

Verification of ECMWF System 4 for seasonal hydrological forecasting in a northern climate

Rachel Bazile et al.
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Bröcker, J. and Smith, L. A.: From ensemble forecasts to predictive distribution functions, Tellus A, 60, 663–678, 2008.
Cloke, H. and Pappenberger, F.: Ensemble flood forecasting: a review, J. Hydrol., 375, 613–626, 2009.
Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger, F.: Bias correcting precipitation forecasts to improve the skill of seasonal streamflow forecasts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3601–3618, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3601-2016, 2016.
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Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability farther in time. However, some end users need proof that climate model outputs are ready to be implemented operationally. We show that bias correction is crucial for the use of ECMWF System4 forecasts for the studied area and there is a potential for the use of 1-month-ahead forecasts. Beyond this, forecast performance is equivalent to using past climatology series as inputs to the hydrological model.
Meteorological forecasting agencies constantly work on pushing the limit of predictability...
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