Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007-6030, 2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
30 Nov 2017
Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia
James C. Bennett1,2, Quan J. Wang3, David E. Robertson1, Andrew Schepen4, Ming Li5, and Kelvin Michael2 1CSIRO Land & Water, Clayton, Victoria, Australia
2Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
3Department of Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
4CSIRO Land & Water, Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia
5CSIRO Data61, Floreat, Western Australia, Australia
Abstract. Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios) to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS) as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean–land–atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall–runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon.

FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( <  4 months), and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months), sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i) ESP rainfall forcings, (ii) different rainfall–runoff models, and (iii) a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall–runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some instances. However, the prior does not remedy poor reliability in very dry catchments.

Overall, FoGSS is an attractive alternative to historical inflow sequences in all but the driest catchments. We discuss ways in which forecast reliability in very dry catchments could be improved in future work.

Citation: Bennett, J. C., Wang, Q. J., Robertson, D. E., Schepen, A., Li, M., and Michael, K.: Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 6007-6030,, 2017.
Publications Copernicus
Short summary
We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the need of water agencies for 12-month forecasts. The forecasts perform well in a wide range of rivers. Forecasts for shorter periods (up to 6 months) are generally informative. Forecasts sometimes did not perform well in a few very dry rivers. We test several techniques for improving streamflow forecasts in drylands, with mixed success.
We assess a new streamflow forecasting system in Australia. The system is designed to meet the...