Articles | Volume 21, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-6541-2017
Research article
 | 
22 Dec 2017
Research article |  | 22 Dec 2017

Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury, Natalie Lockart, Garry Willgoose, George Kuczera, Anthony S. Kiem, and Nadeeka Parana Manage

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Latest update: 27 Mar 2024
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Short summary
Stochastic rainfall models are required to be be able to assess the reliability of dams used for urban water supply. Traditional Markov chain stochastic models do well at reproducing the mean and variance of rainfall at daily to weekly resolution but fail to simultaneously reproduce the variability of monthly to decadal rainfall. This paper presents four new extensions to Markov chain models that address this decadal deficiency and compares their performance for two field sites.