Journal cover Journal topic
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1263-1283, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
20 Feb 2018
A coupled stochastic rainfall–evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis
Minh Tu Pham1, Hilde Vernieuwe2, Bernard De Baets2, and Niko E. C. Verhoest1 1Laboratory of Hydrology and Water Management, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
2KERMIT, Department of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bioinformatics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent, Belgium
Abstract. A hydrological impact analysis concerns the study of the consequences of certain scenarios on one or more variables or fluxes in the hydrological cycle. In such an exercise, discharge is often considered, as floods originating from extremely high discharges often cause damage. Investigating the impact of extreme discharges generally requires long time series of precipitation and evapotranspiration to be used to force a rainfall-runoff model. However, such kinds of data may not be available and one should resort to stochastically generated time series, even though the impact of using such data on the overall discharge, and especially on the extreme discharge events, is not well studied. In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Notwithstanding this finding, it can be concluded that using a coupled stochastic rainfall–evapotranspiration model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.

Citation: Pham, M. T., Vernieuwe, H., De Baets, B., and Verhoest, N. E. C.: A coupled stochastic rainfall–evapotranspiration model for hydrological impact analysis, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1263-1283, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1263-2018, 2018.
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time series, generated by means of vine copulas, are used to force a simple conceptual hydrological model. The results obtained are comparable to the modelled discharge using observed forcing data. Yet, uncertainties in the modelled discharge increase with an increasing number of stochastically generated time series used. Still, the developed model has great potential for hydrological impact analysis.
In this paper, stochastically generated rainfall and corresponding evapotranspiration time...
Share