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Hydrology and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Volume 22, issue 1
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 143–157, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 143–157, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-143-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 09 Jan 2018

Research article | 09 Jan 2018

Does objective cluster analysis serve as a useful precursor to seasonal precipitation prediction at local scale? Application to western Ethiopia

Ying Zhang et al.
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Cited articles  
Anderson, D., Stockdale, T., Balmaseda, M., Ferranti, L., Vitart, F., Molteni, F., Doblas-Reyes, F., Mogensen, K., and Vidard, A.: Development of the ECMWF seasonal forecast System 3, ECMWF Technical Memoranda, 1–56, 2007.
Awulachew, S. B., Yilma, A. D., Loulseged, M., Loiskandl, W., Ayana, M., and Alamirew, T.: Water Resources and Irrigation Development in Ethiopia. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute, 78 pp., Working Paper 123, 2007.
Badr, H. S., Zaitchik, B. F., and Dezfuli, A. K.: A tool for hierarchical climate regionalization, Earth Sci. Inform., 8, 949–958, 2015.
Barrett, C. B.: The Development Of The Nile Hydrometeorological Forecast System1, Wiley Online Library, 1993.
Bekele, F.: Ethiopian Use of ENSO Information in Its Seasonal Forecasts, Internet Journal of African Studies, available at: https://www.bradford.ac.uk/research-old/ijas/ijasno2/bekele.html (last access: 15 June 2016), 1997.
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The study proposes advancing local-level seasonal rainfall predictions by first conditioning on regional-level predictions, as defined through cluster analysis. This statistical approach is applied to western Ethiopia, where lives and livelihoods are vulnerable to its high spatial–temporal rainfall variability, particularly given the high reliance on rain-fed agriculture. The statistical model improves in skills versus the non-clustered case or dynamical models for some critical regions.
The study proposes advancing local-level seasonal rainfall predictions by first conditioning on...
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