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HESS | Articles | Volume 22, issue 3
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023-2039, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2023-2039, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2023-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 29 Mar 2018

Research article | 29 Mar 2018

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Shaun Harrigan et al.
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Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014. 
Anghileri, D., Voisin, N., Castelletti, A., Pianosi, F., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P.: Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments, Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209–4225, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR017864, 2016. 
Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Stephens, E., Wetterhall, F., Prudhomme, C., Neumann, J., Krzeminski, B., and Pappenberger, F.: Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-610, in review, 2017. 
Baker, L. H., Shaffrey, L. C., and Scaife, A. A.: Improved seasonal prediction of UK regional precipitation using atmospheric circulation, Int. J. Climatol., https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5382, 2017. 
Beckers, J. V. L., Weerts, A. H., Tijdeman, E., and Welles, E.: ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3277–3287, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016, 2016. 
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We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a diverse set of 314 catchments. We found ESP was skilful in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. Results have practical implications for current operational use of the ESP method in the UK.
We benchmarked when and where ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is skilful in the UK across a...
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