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Volume 22, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue: Sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2057–2072, 2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 03 Apr 2018

Research article | 03 Apr 2018

Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

Louise Arnal et al.
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Manuscript under review for GC
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Cited articles  
Alfieri, L., Pappenberger, F., Wetterhall, F., Haiden, T., Richardson, D., and Salamon, P.: Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe, J. Hydrol., 517, 913–922, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.035, 2014.
Arnal, L., Wood, A. W., Stephens, E., Cloke, H. L., and Pappenberger, F.: An Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill Elasticity, J. Hydrometeorol., 18, 1715–1729, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1, 2017.
Arribas, A., Glover, M., Maidens, A., Peterson, K., Gordon, M., MacLachlan, C., Graham, R., Fereday, D., Camp, J., Scaife, A. A., Xavier, P., McLean, P., and Colman, A.: The GloSea4 Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal Forecasting, Mon. Weather. Rev., 139, 1891–1910, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3615.1, 2010.
Bell, V. A., Davies, H. N., Kay, A. L., Brookshaw, A., and Scaife, A. A.: A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4681–4691, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017, 2017.
Bennett, J. C., Wang, J. Q., Li, M., Robertson, D. E., and Schepen, A.: Reliable long-range ensemble streamflow forecasts: Combining calibrated climate forecasts with a conceptual runoff model and a staged error model, Water Resour. Res., 52, 8238–8259, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016WR019193, 2016.
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This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts), predicting river flow in European rivers for the next 7 months. For the first month only, these river flow forecasts are, on average, better than predictions that do not make use of atmospheric forecasts. Overall, this forecasting system can predict whether abnormally high or low river flows will occur in the next 7 months in many parts of Europe, and could be valuable for various applications.
This paper presents a new operational forecasting system (driven by atmospheric forecasts),...
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